From fighting to stay up to pushing for a top-half finish, Southampton have come leaps and bounds since appointing Ralph Hasenhüttl in 2018.

But in order to reach their ceiling, they must buy a goalkeeper. Let’s analyze Southampton’s potential GK options.

@statiskicks x @BTLvid

Before we start, I’d like to thank @statiskicks for their help in this making this project. This is the first of many collaborations we’ll be doing with them, a must-follow for anyone interested in data analytics.

They’re changing the course of football analysis in Mexico.

Between Angus Gunn, Alex McCarthy, Fraser Forster and Southampton have three goalkeepers in their first team squad. With so many vital needs such as RB, CB, a Pierre-Emile Højbjerg replacement, should signing a goalkeeper be a priority for Saints this summer?

Our verdict: yes.

Let’s take a look at Angus Gunn first.

After a solid loan spell at Norwich, Southampton signed him for £13.5m, but he’s failed to deliver on the fee, having been frozen out after a 9-0 loss to Leicester.

A loan may be in order to restore his confidence, if not an outright sale.

Fraser Forster:

The 32-year-old hasn’t been a starter since conceding 5 goals on Boxing Day 2017, but he has impressed on loan at Celtic.

With 2 years left on his deal, they’ll be looking to cash in, but with Celtic signing GK Vasilis Barkas, it’s unclear where his future lies.

Alex McCarthy:

He’s been incredibly reliable since benching Angus Gunn in October, but he still has made several mistakes in games like Arsenal (H) and West Ham (A) that suggest he may not be as comfortable and precise in possession as Hasenhüttl demands from his goalkeeper.

The most reasonable course of action for Southampton should be:

1) Sell Fraser Forster while he still has 2 years left on his deal and his resale value is relatively high.

2) Loan Angus Gunn to a Championship club to help regain his confidence before making a decision in 2021.

McCarthy has done well enough this season to suggest that he can be a reliable #2 option between the sticks, or a #1 if Southampton’s prospective new GK fails to adapt.

But there’s also evidence to suggest that McCarthy’s limitations on the ball hinder Southampton’s potential.

From Ramazan Özcan at Ingolstadt to Péter Gulácsi at Leipzig, Hasenhüttl has always mandated the use of a ‘sweeper keeper,’ a goalkeeper who’s comfortable at maneuvering the press and breaking the lines with his passing.

Southampton should aim higher than their current options.

Southampton can’t afford to break the bank for a goalkeeper in these current economic conditions, so we’re starting our GK search with this step: setting the max fee at €12 million (per current Transfermarkt figures).

We’ve filtered out players who are more expensive than that.

For reference, let’s take a look at how Gunn and McCarthy compared with 21 other goalkeepers in the Premier League.

Gunn ranks in the bottom two for shot stopping percentage and shots per goal.

McCarthy fares much stronger, but hestill comes up short in the saves per 90 stat.

Now, let’s take a look at how Gunn and McCarthy do on the ball.

By comparing their passes per 90 and long balls per 90 with their pass accuracy for both, we can see that, once again, they come up short in contrast to several affordable goalkeepers in Europe’s top 5 leagues.

However, several budget-friendly, realistic goalkeeper options stand out among the list: Paderborn’s Leopod Zingerle, Freiburg’s Alexander Schwolow, Dijon’s Alfred Gomis and Fortuna Düsseldorf’s Florian Kastenmeier.

Each of these goalkeepers are within Southampton’s price range.

In terms of save percentage, both Gunn and McCarthy trail behind several players, many of whom are in Ligue 1.

Reims’s Predrag Rajković leads with 81%, Rennes’s Edouard Mendy and Real Sociedad’s Geronimo Rulli are tied for 2nd with 78%, whilst Gomis finishes fourth with 76%.

When it comes to saves per game, Lecce’s Gabriel and Brescia’s Jesse Joronen lead the way with 4.55 and 4.48, whilst Andrei Radu (on loan from Inter) and Zack Steffen (on loan from Manchester City) both rank favorably.

Gunn and McCarthy, in contrast, average 3 and 2.8 per game.

Now let’s look at shots per goal conceded. Once again, Rajković, Mendy, Rulli and Gomis place highly, whilst others like Brest’s Gautier Larsonneur (23) and Udinese’s Juan Musso (26) come out strong.

After impressing at Nice, Walter Benítez (27) could be a safe option on a free.

Now, let’s take a look at the final rankings based off the criteria.

Rulli finishes first with an overall value of 12.6, Larsonneur comes second at 11.2, whilst Joronen, Musso, Schwolow, Gomis, Benítez, Paulo Gazzaniga and
Bartłomiej Drągowski round up the rest of the top nine.

In order to safeguard against goalkeepers who are either on the decline or are close to dropping off in performance, we’ve put the age limit at 28 years old.

In order to take Southampton’s budget constraints into account in our search, we’ve capped the expected fee as well.

McCarthy has played a vital role in Southampton’s turnaround since the ignominous defeat to Leicester City.

But if Southampton are to realize their potential under Hasenhüttl and push for a Europa League spot, they need to aim higher and invest in a new set of hands this summer.