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(1) Another look at the Florida #COVID19 Deaths Backlog:
Florida reports deaths along with the actual day of the death recorded on the deceased's death certificate.
Death Counts are nearly complete through about 7/9. Other deaths between 7/9 and today are backlogged.
Florida reports deaths along with the actual day of the death recorded on the deceased's death certificate.
Death Counts are nearly complete through about 7/9. Other deaths between 7/9 and today are backlogged.
(2) The area of the light gray triangle in the figure represents the approximate size of Florida's reporting backlog.
Area = (h x b)/2
h = 20 days
b = (176 - 15) = 161 deaths/day
Backlog = (20 x 161) / 2 = 1,610 deaths
Area = (h x b)/2
h = 20 days
b = (176 - 15) = 161 deaths/day
Backlog = (20 x 161) / 2 = 1,610 deaths
(3) Actual COVID-19 Death count estimate for Florida:
Reported deaths (R): 7,206
Backlogged deaths (B): 1,610
Last estimated undercount (U, %U):
- Reported deaths: 3,753
- Undercount +3,335 (+88.9%)
Actual COVID-19 Deaths:
- R + B + U = 12,151
- (R + B) x (1 + %U) = 16,653
Reported deaths (R): 7,206
Backlogged deaths (B): 1,610
Last estimated undercount (U, %U):
- Reported deaths: 3,753
- Undercount +3,335 (+88.9%)
Actual COVID-19 Deaths:
- R + B + U = 12,151
- (R + B) x (1 + %U) = 16,653
(4) The 7,206 COVID-19 Deaths Florida displayed today is really in the neighborhood of 12,000 to 17,000.
With 487,132 Confirmed Cases, this count translates to a relatively low 2.5-3.5% Case Fatality Rate.
If the Infection Fatality Rate is ~0.7%, the I/C ratio is 3.6-5X.
With 487,132 Confirmed Cases, this count translates to a relatively low 2.5-3.5% Case Fatality Rate.
If the Infection Fatality Rate is ~0.7%, the I/C ratio is 3.6-5X.
(5) The 3.6-5.0X I/C ratio is in good agreement with recent estimates by Professor Blake ( @_stah) and @zorinaq.
The NY Antibody study showed NY had an average I/C of 8-10X for all deaths up to early April.
The NY Antibody study showed NY had an average I/C of 8-10X for all deaths up to early April.
