(1) Another look at the Florida #COVID19 Deaths Backlog:

Florida reports deaths along with the actual day of the death recorded on the deceased& #39;s death certificate.

Death Counts are nearly complete through about 7/9. Other deaths between 7/9 and today are backlogged.

(2) The area of the light gray triangle in the figure represents the approximate size of Florida& #39;s reporting backlog.

Area = (h x b)/2

h = 20 days

b = (176 - 15) = 161 deaths/day

Backlog = (20 x 161) / 2 = 1,610 deaths

(3) Actual COVID-19 Death count estimate for Florida:

Reported deaths (R): 7,206

Backlogged deaths (B): 1,610

Last estimated undercount (U, %U):
- Reported deaths: 3,753
- Undercount +3,335 (+88.9%)

Actual COVID-19 Deaths:
- R + B + U = 12,151
- (R + B) x (1 + %U) = 16,653

(4) The 7,206 COVID-19 Deaths Florida displayed today is really in the neighborhood of 12,000 to 17,000.

With 487,132 Confirmed Cases, this count translates to a relatively low 2.5-3.5% Case Fatality Rate.

If the Infection Fatality Rate is ~0.7%, the I/C ratio is 3.6-5X.

(5) The 3.6-5.0X I/C ratio is in good agreement with recent estimates by Professor Blake ( @_stah) and @zorinaq.

The NY Antibody study showed NY had an average I/C of 8-10X for all deaths up to early April.