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So it turns out that troop withdrawal is probably not a great way to reassure allies. This brief from a late June survey conducted in Korea. 1/ https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/troop-withdrawal-likely-undermine-south-korean-public-support-alliance-united-states
First, support for the alliance remains high. 90% state support for the US-Korea alliance, basically in-line with numbers over the past decade. The highest I've seen in the past was ~96%. 2/
But the great fear was that the SMA negotiations going public would dent public support for the alliance. The US demands were largely framed as extortive, Korean workers were furloughed. 3/
The demands from the US, and the public nature of the negotiations, had virtually no affect on Korean attitudes towards the alliance. Support among all levels of reported awareness hovered around 90%. 4/
One reason for high levels of support is likely that the alliance is seen as mutually beneficial by the Korean public, as shown below. 5/
And on the US commitment to defend South Korea, 82% are confident that the US would do so if there was a North Korea attack. 6/
There is also strong support for long-term stationing of US forces in Korea. Again, this number has been stable over years. 7/
So how do you undermine an alliance with high support, high support for stationing of US forces, and confidence in US defense commitment? 8/
You begin to erode confidence in that defense commitment. High confidence is associated with the alliance being mutually beneficial. At every step down in confidence, views of the alliance shift toward being beneficial to the US only. 9/
Undermining confidence in US commitment is also likely to erode support for US bases in Korea. 10/
Will there be a troop drawdown in Korea? Uncertain, but my money is on yes. At least, it will be announced. As others have noted ( @WonkVJ among them) troop drawdowns aren't always bad. They can be done in coordination with allies and effective messaging. 11/
That obviously won't happen in this US admin. And a chaotic withdrawal announcement is likely to put a big dent in Korean public support for the alliance. 12/
Final thought: The Korean public is much more sophisticated than it is often given credit for in how it views the alliance. The previous fear that SMA negotiations becoming public, especially with an extortive demand from the US, did not move the needle. 13/
Instead, views seems to be highly tied to confidence in the US commitment. Undermine that confidence and public re-evaluation may follow. /14
