Is automation stealing manufacturing jobs?

My paper, together with Christian Parschau, on the impact of automation on employment / job displacement has just been published in Geoforum.

You can read and download it for free: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.07.002

Summary thread. 1/17

The paper contains two substantial parts. The first part reviews the literature on the impact of automation on employment in the past, present, and future. The second part investigates the impact of automation on employment in the case of South Africa’s apparel industry. 2/17

In our literature review, we highlight that automation not only displaces jobs but also creates jobs through a number of mechanisms. Historically, the jobs created and the new demand unleashed for existing jobs have outweighed job losses. 3/17

Many studies predict that the next wave of automation technology, driven in particular by advances in AI, will allow more jobs in a wider range of industries to be fully automated, causing a rise in unemployment. 4/17

However, the adoption of such technologies has so far been slow, and there is no conclusive evidence yet to show that this is dramatically disrupting the historical pattern of automation’s effect on employment. 5/17

Likewise, claims that new technology is reversing the trend of offshoring to developing countries (i.e. reshoring) are not supported by strong evidence, and it appears that offshoring of production still dominates. 6/17

While many studies predict large-scale job displacement, other studies caution against such claims, instead predicting workforce restructuring or 'reskilling'. Here’s a summary of some influential forecast studies. 7/17

Many recent forecast studies are global in outlook and apply opaque methodologies, which are bound to ignore many country-specific and industry-specific conditions/barriers to implementing automation technologies. 8/17

Additionally, most studies have so far focused on high-income countries, neglecting conditions/barriers to implementing automation technologies in developing countries. 9/17