#BC #Covid July summary: Cases show a slow rise in the province, corresponding to a doubling time of ~20 days. Impressive contact tracing and announcements of exposure locations & dates -> ~1000 self-isolating after exposure (thank you!).

If all goes well, vaccine *may* receive FDA approval as early as Oct/Nov & *may* be available in early 2021 (Dr. Fauci in US). But that's a lot of doubling times away. We can't afford to keep doubling at this rate (20.7 days) >1000 BC cases per day in ~3 months.

Our collective behaviour can bend down that doubling, as we did before in #BC. Stay home when we can, deliver food (esp to elderly), improve ventilation, wear masks, keep safe distancing, stick to same small group. We can change the future away from this overly simple prediction.

Some graphs to illustrate trends to the end of July in #BC in hospitalization, ICU, cases, and deaths (bottom plots also show randomized data fits to help see uncertainty, not done for the top plots because don't have access to data on who is a new patient).

Thanks to the public health team doing the contact tracing & guiding those in self-isolation, @PHSAofBC, @CDCofBC, Dr. Bonnie Henry, @adriandix, and most of all - thanks to the sacrifices that each of you are doing to keep us safe.