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So today, because I need it, I'm going to write up the Case for Hope in this pandemic.
I'm not a doctor, but I am a student of history and an observer of humans.
I'm not a doctor, but I am a student of history and an observer of humans.
In 1962, U.S. President John F Kennedy gave a famous speech, in which he said the U.S. would go to the moon within a decade.
To be clear, nobody knew how to do that. It had never been done. The science wasn't really there. But he said it anyway. And--critically--it got funded.
To be clear, nobody knew how to do that. It had never been done. The science wasn't really there. But he said it anyway. And--critically--it got funded.
Even more critically, there was a real reason to do it. Soviet scientists were getting early wins in the space race, and the pressure was breathing down everyone's neck to innovate. NASA was able to attract some of the best and brightest.
And it was a big, inspirational goal.
And it was a big, inspirational goal.
There were countless sacrifices, late nights, and an unthinkable number of false starts.
But the effort was successful, in large part because it had hundreds and hundreds of smart people totally committed to the project.
But the effort was successful, in large part because it had hundreds and hundreds of smart people totally committed to the project.
So what does this have to do with the pandemic, you ask. We're all looking around at the criminal lack of leadership and response, and a nation full of at least some people who go to parties to get drunk with a hundred of their friends in complete disregard for anyone else.
But we're looking at the wrong thing. As this goes on, month after month, it's becoming increasingly intolerable for us to be this unsocial. That intolerableness is expressing itself with parties in some people, and spiking anxiety/depression rates in everyone else.
There is little political will here in the US to make people wear masks, or to do any number of other things. Ignore that if you can.
There is *tremendous* political will to fund science with the mandate of bringing life back to normal.
There is *tremendous* political will to fund science with the mandate of bringing life back to normal.
From what I'm seeing, most leading scientists in the field are now confident that we will eventually have a vaccine. (It may not be the first few candidates, nor may it be as perfectly useful as you'd expect, or as quickly as we'd like, but it's coming.)
(For those who are worried about immunity, T cell immunity seems to be a thing for SARS and most of early COVID patients. It's even a thing for the common cold for a year or so--that's a YEAR of immunity, which is nontrivial in a case like this one. A year from a shot? YES.)
But even that's not the point. Let's say we never get a vaccine.
We have the political will and the funding for a moon shot, and the entire world's best and brightest working on a big, immediate, inspiring goal, with real pressure and a real reason to innovate.
We have the political will and the funding for a moon shot, and the entire world's best and brightest working on a big, immediate, inspiring goal, with real pressure and a real reason to innovate.
Two years ago it would have been impossible even to conceive of creating millions of vaccines from a logistical perspective. Manufacturing that many new vaccines in six months or less would have been called impossible.
And yet we have the funding and the will, and we're doing it
And yet we have the funding and the will, and we're doing it
We also have a number of very important treatment options already in process.
Don't forget we have antiviral technology already, even if imperfect. We're not starting from scratch.
And we're starting to test artificial antibodies (!), which was the stuff of SFF ten years ago.
Don't forget we have antiviral technology already, even if imperfect. We're not starting from scratch.
And we're starting to test artificial antibodies (!), which was the stuff of SFF ten years ago.
The current state of affairs is intolerable for everyone, but even if the rich and powerful are willing to look away from the everyday person's suffering, they won't look away from their own. They too want the old world back.
And--most critically--the entire world's best and brightest are united behind the moon shot. With full funding and support.
I don't know of another single project in modern history that had anything close to the same set up and support except the moon landing.
I don't know of another single project in modern history that had anything close to the same set up and support except the moon landing.
Kennedy said we'd be on the moon within ten years. We did it in seven.
And then we did it again. And again.
And the innovations we made along the way made a tremendous difference in everyday life.
And then we did it again. And again.
And the innovations we made along the way made a tremendous difference in everyday life.
I don't know how we're going to solve the medical and scientific problems in front of us. But we will. Somehow. The human race will not tolerate any other answer. China, and Germany, and every other country in the world will find the answer even if the US does not.
If we don't get a vaccine, we'll get a treatment or treatments. If we don't get those, we'll get cheap and accurate disinfection gadgets to make public spaces safe. Or one of any number of other solutions you and I can't yet conceive of.
It's a market opportunity like none ever
It's a market opportunity like none ever
But what do we do while we're waiting? What do we do while it's gray and dark and everyday people are suffering in dozens of ways?
We do a few things. We show up for our neighbors. We give to food banks and other mutual aid sources. We put pressure on our legislators...
We do a few things. We show up for our neighbors. We give to food banks and other mutual aid sources. We put pressure on our legislators...
...and we vote.
We write as many letters to our elected officials as it takes, we paper the town with funding for useful political action, and we remember what we learned from the groundswell of Black Lives Matter protests.
We write as many letters to our elected officials as it takes, we paper the town with funding for useful political action, and we remember what we learned from the groundswell of Black Lives Matter protests.
Because those protests--the protests that could not be ignored--got the attention of corporations, and the corporations change everything.
I write business books, and when the corporations are convinced it's more profitable to do the right thing than to deal with the fallout of doing the wrong one, everything changes.
And they forced that Washington sports team to go back to the drawing board and change their name
And they forced that Washington sports team to go back to the drawing board and change their name
They'll do more if we make our voices heard here as well.
We have big problems to face as a human race right now, and in a lot of ways bigger ones as Americans. But we are not defeated. We are not overcome. All hope is not lost.
We have big problems to face as a human race right now, and in a lot of ways bigger ones as Americans. But we are not defeated. We are not overcome. All hope is not lost.
It's time to shake off our despair, trust in the scientists, and hope enough to take action. Even if that action is only holding it together one more day watching kids with no support. Even if it's getting back on the phone with your Congresspeople about unemployment.
We're sitting on more technology, more know-how, and more ability to solve hard problems than we ever have as a human race.
We WILL find a way out of this to a world that is livable and tolerable. We WILL solve the medical and scientific problems that lie before us.
We WILL find a way out of this to a world that is livable and tolerable. We WILL solve the medical and scientific problems that lie before us.
I don't know how long it's going to take, and I don't know what it's going to cost us, but we WILL do this.
Then, as regular everyday people, we have to hold it together, wear masks, take care of our neighbors, and refuse to let it be any more intolerable than it has to be--in many, many ways.
Hope is coming. But we as people determine what our world will be like until it gets here.
Hope is coming. But we as people determine what our world will be like until it gets here.
Do NOT give into despair. Do what you have to do to be okay, mentally, emotionally, relationally. Hug your kids and dance around the living room.
But don't give up.
The world needs you too much to give up.
There's something you can do now to help others get through this.
But don't give up.
The world needs you too much to give up.
There's something you can do now to help others get through this.
Whatever that is, whatever it looks like, whatever letters you have to write, causes you have to donate to, neighbors you have to check on, do that.
But the world is not so uncertain as all of that. Hope is coming.
We will be okay. Eventually.
I promise.
But the world is not so uncertain as all of that. Hope is coming.
We will be okay. Eventually.
I promise.
