Nate’s right - the race won’t be officially called on election night if Biden wins popular vote by less than 8-9 (and maybe even if he wins by 10-12). BUT, that doesn’t mean we won’t generally know how things are going by 1130 PM to 5 AM that night. https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1289932131926343686

Here’s my personal rubric:

Biden wins popular vote by 9+: Decent chance election is officially called that night, all major actors know which way the wind is blowing and election is called by Friday.

2

Biden wins by 6-8: Election not called that night; prognosticators give a sense this isn’t that close but major actors less certain. Election called between Wednesday the 4th and Wednesday the 11th.

3

Biden wins popular vote by 4-6: Election not called that night, there’s decent uncertainty even among the prognosticators who wins. Election ultimately called between Monday the 9th & end of November. Decent chance of serious litigation over tipping point state vote counts.

4

Biden wins popular vote by 2-4: Election outcome in serious doubt by everybody, and Trump is likely leading in electoral college and maybe even popular vote at dawn on Wednesday the 5th. This is the Bush v. Gore redux nightmare scenario.

5

Biden wins by less than 2 or Trump wins popular vote: Trump likely wins, election called for Trump by November the 11th or even that night if he manages to win popular vote by more than 1% overall.

In any of these scenarios, outcome of a Senate seat is unknown til December.