[Short Thread] One of the big errors when analysing #Belarus, is that people make assumptions as to #Lukashenko’s political intentions for the next 5 years. People assume (1) he wants to rule for life, (2) that he believes Belarus should always be an authoritatian state... 1/5 https://twitter.com/grudkev/status/1289923377033961472

(3) That he’s always pro-Russian. None of these assumptions are correct.

Over the years Lukashenko has given mixed signals about the length of his presidency. It’s clear in recent years that his health has not been perfect. At times, he appears bored. 2/5

We should not assume that he wants to run again in 2025. He’s not stupid. He understands civil society is growing & Belarus can’t be governed in 2025 in the same way as 1995. New times,new constitution.

It’s possible that he sees a reformed constitution as part of his legacy.3/5

Lukashenko has spoken about amending the constitution many times in the past 18 months. Shifting powers downwards, creating a Vice-Presidency, empowering regions, new court structures... are all possible. Leading to a new stage in the development of Belarusian democracy? 4/5

Finally, whilst it’s true that Lukashenko is the most pro-Russian candidate, he’s not blind to Moscow’s intentions (which are primarily economic and logistical in nature. Belarus is not Ukraine!). Easy caricatures of Putin’s puppet don’t work. 5/5