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Why does data matter so much in #COVID19 and why is the UK getting it wrong? A thread on transparency. And it starts with this. This is the Hong Kong govt's dashboard for the pandemic. It's extraordinary. Every single case mapped, down to the apartment block they live in...
For instance, here's the latest case, 3397. A 36 year old woman, HK resident, who caught it locally, and here on the map is where she lives. It's an astonishing, even spooky, level of transparency. Anyone can look up any case of the disease: https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/covid-19/en.html
They have a similar dashboard in Singapore. In S Korea authorities often provide info on each case & where they were socialising. And this kind of thing isn't just to be found in Asia. In Belgium there's a similar level of detail released publicly on cases https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/
On the one hand this might seem deeply spooky. These cases are anonymised but even so... On the other hand some might conclude that is the compromise one has to make when battling #COVID19. Fighting the spread involves marshalling the data and imposing policy accordingly
The striking thing is the contrast with UK, where scant info is released on cases - nothing like the detail we see elsewhere. Why? Probably a combination of two answers: 1) civil liberties. This country rankles at the idea of ID cards - wld it stomach this? 2) capability
On that second point, my impression from having spoken to countless people involved in collecting this data is that we simply don't KNOW as much about cases because data collection has been so rubbish. Especially on testing. Much more on that here: https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1281160226289451009?s=20
The problem is, this lack of transparency has real problems. The clearer the data is and the nature of the policy response, the more predictable policy is. It really needn't be a surprise when govt imposes local lockdowns or quarantines on people coming from certain countries
The govt has been utterly vague about the principles and data which underlie local lockdowns/quarantines. This is deeply problematic. Essentially the message is: trust us. That might have washed during the early stages of the crisis. But it won't forever.
In this country we have less transparency over the epidemiology of the disease and the rationale behind policy decisions than Hong Kong. Which, given everything that's going on there, is NOT a good look. But this reluctance to be transparent goes deeper still...
Consider the figs behind the biggest econ intervention in modern times. @hmtreasury has published some data on the furlough scheme and its various business loans but far, far less than (and far less timely than), for instance, they do in France. https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1266301100166017025?s=20
Or consider the crucial payments data the @bankofengland has been using to judge whether we're bouncing back from recession. It's become central to economic policy yet they don't release it as a routine statistic, much to the frustration of us pointyheads https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1283321442147475457?s=20
There's a pattern here. For all the talk abt open data, UK central govt has a tendency to guard its data jealously. Information is power etc etc. And since the BoE & HMT have so much power, they don't get challenged enough. That matters for everyone (not just us pointyheads)
Because data => trust. That's a lesson business learnt some years ago. These days many tech companies publicise their senior employees' salaries as a matter of course, not because they have to but because they want to - it makes for happier workplaces https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-salaries-available-to-execs-pay-transparency-2018-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T
Once upon a time revealing your profit margin was seen as corporate suicide. But these days some retailers actually publish the full costs of making, for instance, a pair of jeans. @Everlane produces breakdowns like this: https://www.everlane.com/products/womens-high-rise-straight-jean-regular-classic-blue?collection=womens-newest-arrivals
The point is: often putting information into the hands of the public actually bolsters your support rather than diminishing it. That's a lesson this govt has yet to learn. But in the face of #COVID19 it matters enormously, esp since lockdowns/quarantines are really data decisions
The next 6/12 months will be tough. Patience with lockdowns has worn thin but we'll prob need more of them. Govt URGENTLY needs to improve how it's communicating/explaining these decisions. Curtailing civil liberties is one thing. Doing it without due explanation is another.
Yes govt needs to move fast to prevent the spread of #COVID19 but if it's being transparent enough these decisions need seem as abrupt and mysterious as they do at the moment. More on this in my @thetimes column https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a9593f1c-d279-11ea-8f7a-2750741cc65b?shareToken=bb633c21cece12960f6af2a3700dd66f
