#Coronavirus waves have inertia. Experience from abroad, and from the spring wave in the U.S., tells us the total eventual deaths have been 6-7 times the cumulative deaths at the peak...

As I said today on @ThisWeekABC, there were 119k deaths on June 21st. As of yesterday we had 152k deaths. So, there have been ~33k deaths associated with this Summer’s resurgence. What does that mean for our near future?...

We would expect 200k-230k projected additional deaths on top of the 119k deaths we had before June 21.

Even if we cut this in half assuming improved treatment and healthcare, we would expect 220k-230k total deaths by Oct. We must anticipate more and react less...

This applies to schools. It is important to get kids back, IF and WHEN it can be done safely. Safe has two components: 1. the amount of virus in the school’s community at the time, and 2. the adaptive controls implemented to create a healthy environment in the school...

Other countries that have successfully reopened schools have had very low amounts of virus in the population at large. Low meaning 1 new case per day per 100,000 people. And, they remain focused on keeping it low. We are not there in much of the US. Many states have 25 or more.

It takes time for stringent controls and interventions to bring cases and deaths down. Remember, the virus picks up momentum...

It does not seem possible in many states, to responsibly reopen schools in the next four weeks. Many districts have high “risk incidence levels” — i.e., a lot of virus in their community mixing bowl. Going back in that environment increases chances of circulating disease...

The recent experience at the summer camp in Georgia is proof. A wake up call. At the time of that incident, Georgia had 40 new cases per day per 100,000 people. Despite safety precautions, almost half the kids and staff got Covid...

There are other metrics and trends to be considered. But, timing matters. When risk is acceptably low, then we move to the safety conditions of the school. See this report: https://globalepidemics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pandemic_resilient_schools_briefing_7.19.20.pdf

It should be a national priority (managed at all levels) to safely re-open schools. That requires planning, commitment, testing, federal funding, and LESS virus.