Where ⁦ @SebastianEPayne⁩ goes to Dudley and find the Conservatives’ grip on ‘red wall’ is holding firm via @FT - fascinating piece; the question is whether the grips survives Covid II, jobs bloodbath and #brexit landing. Reasons to think it will/1 https://on.ft.com/2DloQaY 

First the poll numbers - you can see that @BorisJohnson retains affection of this who switched to Con from Lab between 2017 and 2019. /2

So now that question about the durability of the shift. The piece reveals the astonishing fact that until 1976 Dudley was the richest per capita place in Britain...it’s like Detroit. You go there and feel what @IanAustin1965 identifies as this sense of loss. /3

Personal note here. My dad was Midlands industrialist. Grew up with a Roller in the garage, it was all gone by 1980 - and unlike in Germany, say (see what NorthRhineWestfalia did) - the Midlands was left to rot. The point is that @BorisJohnson speaks to a better future. /4

Undoing the damage the Corbyn’s Labour did for patriotic (Brexit-voting) trad Lab voters will be very hard for Kier Starmer is my guess. It’s a gut thing. So what might do that?/5

Covid? Well, for now at least Govt gets benefit of doubt that it was an “unprecedented situation” (which it clearly was/is)...will that understanding approach remain when the furlough anaesthetic wears off on Oct/Nov? Maybe not - but 2024 is a ways off. Vaccine is on the way/6

What about #Brexit? Well again, go back to that 1976/Patriotism “Make Britain Great Again” offre and you set the coming frictions/dislocations against that grand sweep and it will take a lot for Brexit voters to blame what they asked for, for making them poorer. /7

Which it will, mind you. This is why No 10 would be insane to do a ‘no deal’ - coz that might be one way Dudley voters might actually notice, since sectors like Autos are disproportionately represented in Midlands, and in the better jobs too. /8

One of the most fascinating things will be to see if @BorisJohnson ever gets blamed for pursuing a #brexit that so manifestly hurts the SMEs he professes to cherish. I’d not be too complacent on this if I was No10 - they don’t listen enough to business. /9

You really do see coming world of pain - lots of down stream consequence of bureaucracy and cost (I have mad story coming soon on chemicals industry) that will aggregate. But will it cut through? I’m not sure. Especially with Covid to mask pain in part. /10

One other bit of complacency that may yet trip up this master of cakeism Govt is the idea that Sunak can soothe Surrey while Boris plays well in the red wall. Maybe. But tax rises are coming. And Surrey is stuffed full of accountants!! Watch out. ENDS