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I really don& #39;t think there& #39;s much realism in any vision for the next few years of transit in the NYC central business district that doesn& #39;t involve a massive and coordinated PR campaign to convince people to start riding the subway again.
I think active transpo could have a non-negligible impact (that there hasn& #39;t been a push for some sort of "e-bikes for all" policy seems crazy, but also v on brand for NYC), but there are limits to potential here given geography and weather in NYC (long commutes, extreme temps).
Even if you instituted bus priority on the key north-south Manhattan routes to increase service efficiency, there are still some very real limits to the borough& #39;s depot capacity that make absorption of large amts of ridership difficult.
Then there& #39;s resource competition: what scares me more than the CBD is what will happen in circumferential travel markets where cars were a sorta-viable option pre-COVID.
We need to invest in bus svc in those areas to stave off huge VMT ^^^ in the outer boros, and that& #39;ll require scarce buses and operators.
Now, obviously the increments of WFH, bike commutation and bus gains w/in the constraints of the Manhattan network will add up, but, like, there were 500,000 rail passengers entering the CBD from 8-9 AM.
I think most advocates are aware of these issues broadly, but I just want to reinforce some of the more practical constraints. You can& #39;t really run the NYC CBD without a largely rail commuting population.
This thread brought to you by late night pessimism
