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I really don't think there's much realism in any vision for the next few years of transit in the NYC central business district that doesn't involve a massive and coordinated PR campaign to convince people to start riding the subway again.
I think active transpo could have a non-negligible impact (that there hasn't been a push for some sort of "e-bikes for all" policy seems crazy, but also v on brand for NYC), but there are limits to potential here given geography and weather in NYC (long commutes, extreme temps).
But I can't say I share advocates' faith in the potential for buses to help much here.
Even if you instituted bus priority on the key north-south Manhattan routes to increase service efficiency, there are still some very real limits to the borough's depot capacity that make absorption of large amts of ridership difficult.
Then there's resource competition: what scares me more than the CBD is what will happen in circumferential travel markets where cars were a sorta-viable option pre-COVID.
We need to invest in bus svc in those areas to stave off huge VMT ^^^ in the outer boros, and that'll require scarce buses and operators.
Now, obviously the increments of WFH, bike commutation and bus gains w/in the constraints of the Manhattan network will add up, but, like, there were 500,000 rail passengers entering the CBD from 8-9 AM.
I think most advocates are aware of these issues broadly, but I just want to reinforce some of the more practical constraints. You can't really run the NYC CBD without a largely rail commuting population.
This thread brought to you by late night pessimism
