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It's August. We've just finished a bad quarter. GDP was down 32.9%. But America runs on its stomach. How's the #food situation? Luckily, the USDA maintains a cold storage survey of food supplies held in commercial and public warehouses.
Your local grocery store may be out of something, but if the cold storage survey looks good, things are going to work out and prices will decline. If your store is full, but the cold storage report is looking bad, stock up.
First up is beef. Beef is looking good. The cold stores are seasonally low, but we're above 2019 numbers.
Now: Chicken. Still looking good. Down from highs in Q1, but up over 2019.
Butter. Doing great. The US has more butter in cold storage than at anytime in the last 3.5 years.
Now for some bad news: pork. If you need some pork butt, pork ribs, or chops, you’re probably seeing fewer options and paying more. There's less pork in cold storage than at anytime in the recent past. Looking for something (or someone) to blame? Blame China and COVID-19
Now for the crops. Corn, looking great.
Orange juice. Doing EXCELLENT. Drink your OJ, people.
Green peas. A little low, but doing OK. Hope we have a good harvest.
Now more bad news: potatoes. The cold stores of potatoes are significantly more empty than they've been at anytime in the recent past. Expect to pay quite a bit more for these normally cheap starches.
