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As most recently discussed in depth by @luke_j_obrien, the nuclear release procedures for NATO in Cold War were byzantine & slow.
Given US stress on promptness of lower yield W76-2 in support of NATO, must ask:
Faster release procedures for W76-2 or no? (prob “no).
Given US stress on promptness of lower yield W76-2 in support of NATO, must ask:
Faster release procedures for W76-2 or no? (prob “no).
Having finished my NSSP project on the W76-2 I gotta say that the official justifications seem to stop thinking past “having this weapon will magically deter russia and assure allies.”
Nuclear options require planning ffs. And the Russians are very aware of NATO nuke procedurss.
Nuclear options require planning ffs. And the Russians are very aware of NATO nuke procedurss.
In other words:
IF the “deterrent capability” of W76-2 depends significantly in part on its promptness as declaratory justifications argue...
...then what happens to that “deterrent effect” when Russia knows NATO can’t agree on nuke use in less than 24 hours (& maybe at all)?
IF the “deterrent capability” of W76-2 depends significantly in part on its promptness as declaratory justifications argue...
...then what happens to that “deterrent effect” when Russia knows NATO can’t agree on nuke use in less than 24 hours (& maybe at all)?
This also would seem to undermine the argument for possible use of the W76-2 to suppport NATO military operations against time sensitive rargets.
Assuming US (or France) doesn’t just fire off some nukes without consultation or discussion with Allies.
Assuming US (or France) doesn’t just fire off some nukes without consultation or discussion with Allies.
Furthermore:
Relative yield is relatively unimportant.
Targets, fatalities, effects, beliefs about goal accomplishment thru escalation, domestic politics, belief that large scale war is(n’t) inevitable...
All these are more important factors based on history & scholarly lit.
Relative yield is relatively unimportant.
Targets, fatalities, effects, beliefs about goal accomplishment thru escalation, domestic politics, belief that large scale war is(n’t) inevitable...
All these are more important factors based on history & scholarly lit.
In scenario I decomposed for exploratory model:
Russia invades Latvia & uses 2 bomber delivered nukes, launched from airfield in Latvia, against a NATO airfield & command post in Latvia.
US/NATO drops W76-s2 on Latvian airfield & a command post near Smolensk.
Russia invades Latvia & uses 2 bomber delivered nukes, launched from airfield in Latvia, against a NATO airfield & command post in Latvia.
US/NATO drops W76-s2 on Latvian airfield & a command post near Smolensk.
Which do you think would most influence Russian decisions about nuke retaliaton or escalation:
-US uses a 7kt nuke against a command or leadership bunker near Smolensk.
-US used a 90kt warhead, above same, but extra 10k killed.
-US nuked a command bunker in Russian territory.
-US uses a 7kt nuke against a command or leadership bunker near Smolensk.
-US used a 90kt warhead, above same, but extra 10k killed.
-US nuked a command bunker in Russian territory.
US justificatory declarations for W76-2 inconsistent & unconvincing.
-promise to deliver “unacceptable consequences” vs Russia but then stress how W76-2 less escalatory.
-magical thinking: if capability exists allies will be assurred & Russia deterred.
-why mention DPRK?
-promise to deliver “unacceptable consequences” vs Russia but then stress how W76-2 less escalatory.
-magical thinking: if capability exists allies will be assurred & Russia deterred.
-why mention DPRK?
mostly completed revisions to my W76-2 project paper.
When I am done (tonight?) will post revised version to Patreon.
Right now I’m having “it’s never enough, I am so fucking overwhelmed” feeling I get when I finish (or work on) tasks.
Gonna sob & rest for a few.
#PhDLife
When I am done (tonight?) will post revised version to Patreon.
Right now I’m having “it’s never enough, I am so fucking overwhelmed” feeling I get when I finish (or work on) tasks.
Gonna sob & rest for a few.
#PhDLife
WOW.
It took less than 5 minutes of the news (granted, I was primed) to push me over into holy fuck is this real territory!
President claims a fertilizer explosion was a bomb?
Sure! What’s next?
Coronavirus is a bioweapon & we’re nuking the Chinese?
WHY NOT?
It took less than 5 minutes of the news (granted, I was primed) to push me over into holy fuck is this real territory!
President claims a fertilizer explosion was a bomb?
Sure! What’s next?
Coronavirus is a bioweapon & we’re nuking the Chinese?
WHY NOT?
