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I confess that I don& #39;t really understand why Abe and his government have been so non-chalant about what appears to be a second wave. Some hypotheses in no particular order:
1) Bought their own hype: having tamed the outbreak once "without lockdowns," they believed that they could keep doing what they had already done, without a big increase in testing, and safely let business return to normal.
2) changing risk perceptions: as first wave receded, business fears grew in prominence, leading leadership to fear shutdowns more than second wave. Perhaps one data point is the shift in the composition, status of advisory panel.
3) weak pressure from prefectures: unlike in April, when Koike and other governors pushed for a state of emergency, the same pressure has been missing, partly for idiosyncratic reasons (e.g. Koike& #39;s focus on reelection) but also similar worries about business costs.
4) this time is different: not unrelated to #1, Suga has stressed that large numbers of younger patients, low number of severe cases, low number of deaths as reason to not reintroduce business closure requests. Assumes ability to fine tune timing of more stringent intervention.
5) inertia: not unlike in first wave, response has been sluggish because Abe& #39;s premiership is brittle with age, weaker cabinet lineup, frayed ties between PM and Suga, etc. Combines with:
6) divided attention: lull between waves coincided with a) western Japan flooding, b) rising China tensions, c) Aegis Ashore suspension. Leadership is more distracted than earlier this year.
The second waves cresting in other countries that had "beaten it" suggests there is decent grounds for comparison. Maybe most governments have overestimated their ability to fine tune.
Either way, it& #39;s hard to see how this isn& #39;t already a huge problem for Abe that seems bound to get worse. It& #39;s still a bit puzzling that the predominant features of his response to a unique crisis have been indecision, tardiness, and miscommunication.
One more thought on the Abe puzzle. What puzzles me is that Abe thinks cinematically: he wanted to be a director as a kid, any reader of 美しい国へ will immediately notice the cinematic references, clearly loves the idea of a setpiece speech that wins the day for the hero.
If there was anything Abe had to do in this crisis, it was trust the experts and use his bully pulpit to communicate clearly with the public, rally everyone around the idea of collective sacrifice. He did well announcing school closures but has been missing ever since.
He& #39;s never been the stirring orator I think he wishes he was -- at least when it comes to persuading people not otherwise on his side. But this just required emotion and clarity, and he& #39;s fallen flat.
There& #39;s also this "shock politics" thesis: https://twitter.com/ortospace/status/1289721935098601473?s=19.">https://twitter.com/ortospace... I wonder whether this one isn& #39;t too clever by half.
It& #39;s a strange logic that says "we can& #39;t do anything because the constitution needs to change," then do nothing, then scramble when things go wrong. Also, they contained it once already. Doesn& #39;t mean it& #39;s not possible...
To the point about his oratory, Sankei implores Abe on this:
"Corona cannot be overcome without the trust of the people. Prime Minister Abe should speak to the people in his own words, as appropriate." https://twitter.com/observingjapan/status/1289743895987855361?s=19">https://twitter.com/observing...
"Corona cannot be overcome without the trust of the people. Prime Minister Abe should speak to the people in his own words, as appropriate." https://twitter.com/observingjapan/status/1289743895987855361?s=19">https://twitter.com/observing...
