Read on Twitter
1/ Just watched an interview between @DiMartinoBooth & @TruthGundlach. So good that I wanted to make a thread with some key takeaways.
Encourage everyone to watch the full interview here:
Encourage everyone to watch the full interview here:
2/ @TruthGundlach on young people:
Says young people should take way more “career risks”. He regrets not starting his company 15+ years earlier.
Says young people should take way more “career risks”. He regrets not starting his company 15+ years earlier.
3/ @TruthGundlach on financial literacy:
Says young ppl are not just financially illiterate, they are being *taught* illiteracy, which is even worse than knowing nothing.
Examples: Fractional stock ownership. The rise of options trading, Robinhood, etc.
Says young ppl are not just financially illiterate, they are being *taught* illiteracy, which is even worse than knowing nothing.
Examples: Fractional stock ownership. The rise of options trading, Robinhood, etc.
4/ @TruthGundlach on austerity:
says people dont have the fundamentals down. Society is addicted to debt, cars, electronics, etc.
Govts are acting the same way, DEBT is a long term problem, byt they are addicted to “kicking the can down the road”.
says people dont have the fundamentals down. Society is addicted to debt, cars, electronics, etc.
Govts are acting the same way, DEBT is a long term problem, byt they are addicted to “kicking the can down the road”.
5/ @TruthGundlach on deflationary effects of COVID:
Sees big trouble ahead for commercial real estate.
What will happen to all the office buildings? What about all the hotels built in small cities for business travel? Business flights?
Sees big trouble ahead for commercial real estate.
What will happen to all the office buildings? What about all the hotels built in small cities for business travel? Business flights?
6/ @TruthGundlach on corporate bonds:
We’ve seen the most bankruptcies since ‘08 GFC, but paradoxically most issuance and subs to corporate junk bonds.
Jeffs answer: people believe the fed will backstop it all.
We’ve seen the most bankruptcies since ‘08 GFC, but paradoxically most issuance and subs to corporate junk bonds.
Jeffs answer: people believe the fed will backstop it all.
7/ cont.
But whats the point of backstopping something doomed for insolvency?
Airlines are a prime example, they can take PPP money,
but what happens if they still need to cut jobs or declare bankruptcy down the line?
But whats the point of backstopping something doomed for insolvency?
Airlines are a prime example, they can take PPP money,
but what happens if they still need to cut jobs or declare bankruptcy down the line?
8/ @TruthGundlach on market signals:
believes that corp Junk bond markets are distorted by FED intervention, and are no longer signaling real risk.
believes other markets like CMBS, and CCC rated debt are signaling correctly, and represent hi risk/reward.
believes that corp Junk bond markets are distorted by FED intervention, and are no longer signaling real risk.
believes other markets like CMBS, and CCC rated debt are signaling correctly, and represent hi risk/reward.
9/ @TruthGundlach on historical economic parallels to today:
poor-> starve to death
middle class-> become poor
ppl who benefit from money printing-> become ridiculously wealthy
this often leads to social unrest, but the masses can’t pinpoint the reason why
poor-> starve to death
middle class-> become poor
ppl who benefit from money printing-> become ridiculously wealthy
this often leads to social unrest, but the masses can’t pinpoint the reason why
10/ @TruthGundlach on taxes:
there is partial truth to rich ppl paying less taxes.
however the reality is; its a mixed bag, and many wealthy ppl pay high taxes.
He pays >50%. the misperception is that *every wealthy person doesnt.
this adds to social unrest.
there is partial truth to rich ppl paying less taxes.
however the reality is; its a mixed bag, and many wealthy ppl pay high taxes.
He pays >50%. the misperception is that *every wealthy person doesnt.
this adds to social unrest.
11/ @TruthGundlach on UBI:
we’ve had a form of UBI since the 60s, it’s called welfare.
he says welfare is a bargain w the devil.
“We’ll give you a subsistence living, and in return you, and your kids, and your grandkids, will never have real opportunity”.
we’ve had a form of UBI since the 60s, it’s called welfare.
he says welfare is a bargain w the devil.
“We’ll give you a subsistence living, and in return you, and your kids, and your grandkids, will never have real opportunity”.
12/ cont.
what we need is equality of opportunity.
what we need is equality of opportunity.
13/ @TruthGundlach on @kanyewest :
calls Kanye the most politically powerful person right now in 2020.
because he has the ability to shift the Black vote, which is the most powerful political demographic right now.
calls Kanye the most politically powerful person right now in 2020.
because he has the ability to shift the Black vote, which is the most powerful political demographic right now.
14/ @TruthGundlach on a concept:
“Things can change really profoundly, almost overnight.”
He sees a reckoning that could come for “high paying” jobs in middle management, which thus far has been insulated from the COVID crises.
Gives an example of Cali wildfires
“Things can change really profoundly, almost overnight.”
He sees a reckoning that could come for “high paying” jobs in middle management, which thus far has been insulated from the COVID crises.
Gives an example of Cali wildfires
15/ cont.
when he realized he was in an Evac zone, he felt the “crack of doom”.
Jeff believes many jobs are at higher risk of disappearing than they seem, and too many people have a false sense of security for whats about to come.
when he realized he was in an Evac zone, he felt the “crack of doom”.
Jeff believes many jobs are at higher risk of disappearing than they seem, and too many people have a false sense of security for whats about to come.
16/ @TruthGundlach on US Sovereign debt:
only sees two options, either we
default on ‘portions’ of or obligations (IE- raise social security to 80yrs)
or
we continue to see widespread debasement.
(money printer goes BRRRRRRR)
only sees two options, either we
default on ‘portions’ of or obligations (IE- raise social security to 80yrs)
or
we continue to see widespread debasement.
(money printer goes BRRRRRRR)
17/ @TruthGundlach on China and Covid:
americans are slowly waking up to the fact that we’ve traded short term pleasures for long term pains w China.
IE: we got cheap plastic trinkets, but emboldended and empowered a communist autocracy.
americans are slowly waking up to the fact that we’ve traded short term pleasures for long term pains w China.
IE: we got cheap plastic trinkets, but emboldended and empowered a communist autocracy.
18/ @TruthGundlach on V-shaped recovery:
sees it as completely improbably. “cant have 20% unemployment, and expect things to go right back to normal”
there is much more pain ahead
sees it as completely improbably. “cant have 20% unemployment, and expect things to go right back to normal”
there is much more pain ahead
19/ @TruthGundlach on ADVICE for average investor:
hates saying this, but advises to diversify, and barbell your portfolio.
He believes theres a binary outcome to the problem we have, either the govt confiscates, or debases. Or some combo of the two.
hates saying this, but advises to diversify, and barbell your portfolio.
He believes theres a binary outcome to the problem we have, either the govt confiscates, or debases. Or some combo of the two.
20/ cont.
He advocates owning hard assets that could survive debasement.
*wink*
Says if you own stocks, at least they will reflect debasement when it occurs.
THE RUB: the avg investor doesn't have the liquidity to position themselves for these outcomes....
He advocates owning hard assets that could survive debasement.
*wink*
Says if you own stocks, at least they will reflect debasement when it occurs.
THE RUB: the avg investor doesn't have the liquidity to position themselves for these outcomes....
