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Memphis/Shelby County Wkly Covid Update, Aug1
tl;dr
- record high 425 cases/day this wk
- record high 17% pos
- cases are growing 76% faster than testing
- let's set a goal to open schools after fall break
- shut it down & start over
- we have 3wks if we want school in Q2
1/
tl;dr
- record high 425 cases/day this wk
- record high 17% pos
- cases are growing 76% faster than testing
- let's set a goal to open schools after fall break
- shut it down & start over
- we have 3wks if we want school in Q2
1/
Here are total cases, 4 ways:
- since Phase 1/May 3
- since Phase 2/May 17
- Phase 2 thru June 30
- July 1 - Aug 1
- the thing to notice (this is an important & ancient principle in math) is that the more you zoom in, the more the curve looks like a line
- i'll unpack...
2/
- since Phase 1/May 3
- since Phase 2/May 17
- Phase 2 thru June 30
- July 1 - Aug 1
- the thing to notice (this is an important & ancient principle in math) is that the more you zoom in, the more the curve looks like a line
- i'll unpack...
2/
When you zoom out & look at cases since Phase 1 or 2, you can clearly see an upward curve, but it's hard to see precisely what's happening.
When you zoom in, it's clear that the curve bent upwards in late June into early July. That's acceleration.
But...
3/
When you zoom in, it's clear that the curve bent upwards in late June into early July. That's acceleration.
But...
3/
...then, after July 4, cases follow a straight line, which means constant growth. Not accelerating or decelerating, just holding steady.
That sounds good, right?
Well, not exactly.
You don't want to hold steady & drive into a trainwreck!
(Also, steady is misleading.)
4/
That sounds good, right?
Well, not exactly.
You don't want to hold steady & drive into a trainwreck!
(Also, steady is misleading.)
4/
As you can see here, we actually hit a record-high 7-day average of 425 cases/day today.
The 7-day growth rate has actually slowed, from 20% two wks ago to 16% today. But the math of that actually means more daily cases.
Is your mind blown?
I'll explain...
5/
The 7-day growth rate has actually slowed, from 20% two wks ago to 16% today. But the math of that actually means more daily cases.
Is your mind blown?
I'll explain...
5/
The 7-day avg, 7 days ago, was 356 cases/day.
A 16% growth from that gives us today's 425 cases/day.
Back on July 19, the 7-day growth rate was 20%.
But that took us from 268 to 394 daily cases.
When you have more cases, a lower growth rate can actually give you more cases.
6/
A 16% growth from that gives us today's 425 cases/day.
Back on July 19, the 7-day growth rate was 20%.
But that took us from 268 to 394 daily cases.
When you have more cases, a lower growth rate can actually give you more cases.
6/
And this is why mitigation efforts are simply not good enough. We have to do more than just fight the spread.
We have to stop the spread, period.
It's possible. Others have done it.
(NOTE: If Memphis were on this chart, we'd be twice as high as the US avg.)
7/
We have to stop the spread, period.
It's possible. Others have done it.
(NOTE: If Memphis were on this chart, we'd be twice as high as the US avg.)
7/
The above chart is set to cases per million.
- South Korea is under 1 daily case per 1M
- Italy's at 6/1M
- Germany, 11/1M
- UK, 13/1M
- The World Avg is 36/1M
...and the US is at 202/1M.
Memphis would be 450/1M!
Y'all, please understand, this is a disaster.
8/
- South Korea is under 1 daily case per 1M
- Italy's at 6/1M
- Germany, 11/1M
- UK, 13/1M
- The World Avg is 36/1M
...and the US is at 202/1M.
Memphis would be 450/1M!
Y'all, please understand, this is a disaster.
8/
Here we have daily cases per 100k, using the metrics set by Harvard's Global Health Institute & Center for Ethics.
*According to their research, anything over 25 daily cases per 100k means the spread is out of control & stay-at-home orders are necessary. We're at 45.
9/
*According to their research, anything over 25 daily cases per 100k means the spread is out of control & stay-at-home orders are necessary. We're at 45.
9/
Here we have new cases/wk & avg daily cases/wk
--> we're at record highs, y'all, with 425 cases/day and 2973 total cases this wk
+19% over last wk
+34% over 4wks ago (the wk leading into July 4)
+449% over the wk we entered Phase 2
+512% over the wk we reopened
10/
--> we're at record highs, y'all, with 425 cases/day and 2973 total cases this wk
+19% over last wk
+34% over 4wks ago (the wk leading into July 4)
+449% over the wk we entered Phase 2
+512% over the wk we reopened
10/
Now, here's the big problem...
- cases continue to grow faster than testing
- cases are growing 76% faster, in fact
- notice that the upward curve we talked about earlier happened right after case growth passed test growth
- that's bc testing is essential for containment
11/
- cases continue to grow faster than testing
- cases are growing 76% faster, in fact
- notice that the upward curve we talked about earlier happened right after case growth passed test growth
- that's bc testing is essential for containment
11/
As you can see here, we definitely ramped up testing in late June...but are actually down over July.
So don't let anyone tell you that cases are up bc testing is up. That has never been true, but now less than ever.
Let me repeat for emphasis: TESTING IS DOWN.
12/
So don't let anyone tell you that cases are up bc testing is up. That has never been true, but now less than ever.
Let me repeat for emphasis: TESTING IS DOWN.
12/
Compare case growth vs test growth...
1wk: +19% cases, +12% tests
4wks: +34% cases, -2% tests (wk leading into July 4)
Since Phase 2 (May 17): +449%, +53%
Since reopening (May 3): +512, +114%
This is a huge problem. And consider the implications...
13/
1wk: +19% cases, +12% tests
4wks: +34% cases, -2% tests (wk leading into July 4)
Since Phase 2 (May 17): +449%, +53%
Since reopening (May 3): +512, +114%
This is a huge problem. And consider the implications...
13/
When testing is limited, as it's been here, you have to limit who can get a test. And so, locally, only those with symptoms or close contact with a known positive can get tested.
The result: People w/o symptoms are walking around, unknowingly spreading the virus.
14/
The result: People w/o symptoms are walking around, unknowingly spreading the virus.
14/
There are only 3 ways to contain the virus.
1) Vaccine.
2) Test, Trace, Isolate.
3) Lockdown.
We don't have a vaccine, and we don't want to lockdown, so we have to get testing, tracing, & isolating fixed.
Unfortunately, July was a lost month.
We *will* have to shut down.
15/
1) Vaccine.
2) Test, Trace, Isolate.
3) Lockdown.
We don't have a vaccine, and we don't want to lockdown, so we have to get testing, tracing, & isolating fixed.
Unfortunately, July was a lost month.
We *will* have to shut down.
15/
Testing and positivity are connected in a way that's not being talked about...
- you want to do more testing to find more cases & isolate ppl before they spread the virus
- but you end up testing a bunch of ppl who are negative
- and so the more tests you do, %pos goes down
16/
- you want to do more testing to find more cases & isolate ppl before they spread the virus
- but you end up testing a bunch of ppl who are negative
- and so the more tests you do, %pos goes down
16/
Here's a chart that shows positivity rate & tests/day
- we're on the top left side, with just 2,500 tests/day, leading to 17%pos
- to get under 10%, we'd have to do 4,300 tests/day
- to get under 5%, we'd have to do 8,600/day
- to get under 3%, we'd need almost 15,000/day
17/
- we're on the top left side, with just 2,500 tests/day, leading to 17%pos
- to get under 10%, we'd have to do 4,300 tests/day
- to get under 5%, we'd have to do 8,600/day
- to get under 3%, we'd need almost 15,000/day
17/
It can be done...
- even the UK, which hit a high of 29%pos back in mid-April, got below 3% by the end of May and have been under 1% since late June
(Memphis is at 17%, y'all! This is a disaster!)
18/
- even the UK, which hit a high of 29%pos back in mid-April, got below 3% by the end of May and have been under 1% since late June
(Memphis is at 17%, y'all! This is a disaster!)
18/
Here's our positivity rate...
--> we just hit a record high 17%pos this wk
- i can't stress how bad this is
- anything over 10% means testing is missing a significant number of cases
- that means we don't have "eyes" on the spread
- and that means it's out of control
19/
--> we just hit a record high 17%pos this wk
- i can't stress how bad this is
- anything over 10% means testing is missing a significant number of cases
- that means we don't have "eyes" on the spread
- and that means it's out of control
19/
Let me explain what I mean by "eyes"...
- testing gives you data
- data give you the ability to see what's happening
- and that allows you to take targeted action
- lack of testing means you can't make targeted action
- this is the reason we had to shut down in March
20/
- testing gives you data
- data give you the ability to see what's happening
- and that allows you to take targeted action
- lack of testing means you can't make targeted action
- this is the reason we had to shut down in March
20/
I'm sympathetic to our leaders bc only Congress can do what's needed, which is financial support to ppl, biz, & local govt.
But I'm beyond frustrated with the lack of transparency and honesty and urgency from our leaders about our reality.
WE'RE IN A CRISIS!
21/
But I'm beyond frustrated with the lack of transparency and honesty and urgency from our leaders about our reality.
WE'RE IN A CRISIS!
21/
Here's the thing: They know we're in a crisis.
They took down the Back to Biz website, with the dashboard that showed a red/yellow/green status for each reopening indicator...as soon as we hit RED for every indicator!
This is Trump-type stuff.
https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/
22/
They took down the Back to Biz website, with the dashboard that showed a red/yellow/green status for each reopening indicator...as soon as we hit RED for every indicator!
This is Trump-type stuff.
https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/
22/
Just this week, our leaders told us that cases have plateaued & positivity rates are dropping.
But it's just not true.
Just look at the data above!
23/
But it's just not true.
Just look at the data above!
23/
Now, I will say that one issue is that I'm using the date of when they report cases & test data, whereas they are using the date the test was done. There are pros & cons of each.
Here's their chart, showing a "clear" downslope.
But let me explain the problem here...
24/
Here's their chart, showing a "clear" downslope.
But let me explain the problem here...
24/
When you backdate cases like this, your data is vulnerable to the delays in test processing we've been experiencing.
And so what looks like a drop after July 15 is actually where we're just waiting for test results. (My friend got her results yesterday from July 9.)
25/
And so what looks like a drop after July 15 is actually where we're just waiting for test results. (My friend got her results yesterday from July 9.)
25/
We hit the 20,000th case this week.
I spoke with @TobySells from @MemphisFlyer on July 2.
At the time, we had just hit 10k cases the day before, and I projected that we would hit 20k by Aug 1.
My projection came within 3days.
https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-driven/Content?oid=23331382
26/
I spoke with @TobySells from @MemphisFlyer on July 2.
At the time, we had just hit 10k cases the day before, and I projected that we would hit 20k by Aug 1.
My projection came within 3days.
https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-driven/Content?oid=23331382
26/
At our current rate, this is what the future looks like.
May 31: 5k cases
July 1: 10k
July 29: 20k
Aug 30: 40k
Oct 1: 80k
Nov 2: 160k
Dec 4: 320k
27/
May 31: 5k cases
July 1: 10k
July 29: 20k
Aug 30: 40k
Oct 1: 80k
Nov 2: 160k
Dec 4: 320k
27/
What to do?
First, we need an honest assessment of our current situation. I think I've done that here, but we need our leaders to do this.
Then, once we know where we are, we need to define where we're going. Set concrete metrics for success, goals we can all rally behind.
28/
First, we need an honest assessment of our current situation. I think I've done that here, but we need our leaders to do this.
Then, once we know where we are, we need to define where we're going. Set concrete metrics for success, goals we can all rally behind.
28/
A big part of the problem right now is that we're just being given numbers, with no context, and being told it's not that bad.
Our leaders aren't saying it's bad, they're not showing urgency, and they're not giving us goals.
No wonder no one cares!
29/
Our leaders aren't saying it's bad, they're not showing urgency, and they're not giving us goals.
No wonder no one cares!
29/
Prioritize schools.
It's too late for Q1, so let's set a goal to reopen schools in-person after Fall Break.
That's Oct19, 11wks. It will take 8wks to contain the spread.
So if we want school in-person for Q2, then we have to shut down in the next 3wks.
Hit reset.
30/
It's too late for Q1, so let's set a goal to reopen schools in-person after Fall Break.
That's Oct19, 11wks. It will take 8wks to contain the spread.
So if we want school in-person for Q2, then we have to shut down in the next 3wks.
Hit reset.
30/
I wrote an op-ed about setting metrics for reopening schools.
https://dailymemphian.com/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
31/
https://dailymemphian.com/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
31/
We have a long way to go.
But as @ASlavitt reminds us, we're always just 8wks away from getting this under control.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1287524301499965441
32/
But as @ASlavitt reminds us, we're always just 8wks away from getting this under control.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1287524301499965441
32/
Come out tonight to Stand In Solidarity.
You can wear a mask and socially distance. Plus, it's outside, which is like 19 times safer.
https://twitter.com/jd_occasionally/status/1288520692401569798
33/
You can wear a mask and socially distance. Plus, it's outside, which is like 19 times safer.
https://twitter.com/jd_occasionally/status/1288520692401569798
33/
In case you want to know about me and why you should care about my analysis, I'm a special educator/admin who has built a career on data, w/a grad degree in ethics (& studied biomedical ethics).
read more on me here...
http://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html
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read more on me here...
http://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html
34/
One last thing: If you appreciate my work on covid, please make a contribution to @LifeLineSuccess. I've partnered w/ @ministerdbrown @mrsvjbrown for over 10yrs. I will vouch for their integrity and work.
https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/blight-patrol-needs-new-mowers
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https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/blight-patrol-needs-new-mowers
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