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THREAD TIME
My boy @Jason, whom I respect a lot, recently had Trevor Milton, whom I believe is the next Elizabeth Holmes, on his podcast ‘This Week in Startups’ and boy is it a doozy!
Thanks to @c4chaos for the tip.
That’s right, it’s
THREAD TIME My boy @Jason, whom I respect a lot, recently had Trevor Milton, whom I believe is the next Elizabeth Holmes, on his podcast ‘This Week in Startups’ and boy is it a doozy!
Thanks to @c4chaos for the tip.
I just want you to bear in mind that this is the question. A simple question that is hard to misinterpret.
... and this is not an answer. 
But ok, let’s address the tangent. Why did WeWork fail?
But ok, let’s address the tangent. Why did WeWork fail?
As I see it, WeWork had 2 main problems plus some inevitable bad luck.
Problem 1 was that it marketed itself as a tech company when really it was a landlord that knew software.
I may be going crazy but that’s almost like branding yourself as a Tesla competitor when really
Problem 1 was that it marketed itself as a tech company when really it was a landlord that knew software.
I may be going crazy but that’s almost like branding yourself as a Tesla competitor when really
your main business is like that of an oil company. 
Problem 2 was that WeWork was led by a narcissistic CEO whom people saw as a visionary until things started to go wrong, after which he became irate.
Hmm, again, I may be crazy but that sure sounds familiar!
Problem 2 was that WeWork was led by a narcissistic CEO whom people saw as a visionary until things started to go wrong, after which he became irate.
Hmm, again, I may be crazy but that sure sounds familiar!
And the bad luck? Well, here is a great video that explains it, if you’re interested:
Watch this for the full picture.
Watch this for the full picture.
Yeah, the core business is the same as any petrol/diesel company, except that Nikola also has the burden of needing to create demand.
So Nikola is being paid per mile? This is essentially meaning they take the loss for many years.
Let’s be generous and say that they have a 30% profit margin over the first 7years/700k miles.
That would take 5.38 years to break even just on that truck alone.
Let’s be generous and say that they have a 30% profit margin over the first 7years/700k miles.
That would take 5.38 years to break even just on that truck alone.
Actually, it appears that Nikola expects 30% margins too. Beat or miss by a few % and it doesn’t make that much difference.
Anyway, this is only for the first few trucks. With time, costs may come down and margins may go up but so would volume (ideally for Nikola)
Anyway, this is only for the first few trucks. With time, costs may come down and margins may go up but so would volume (ideally for Nikola)
What does this mean? Well, it means that Nikola and $NKLA investors should expect the next 10 years to be full of losses and capital raises.
I doubt Nikola could survive this, in their best case.
In reality though, 10 years is a long time in the modern world and...
I doubt Nikola could survive this, in their best case.
In reality though, 10 years is a long time in the modern world and...
Tesla Semi in 2030 will be a different beast entirely! Nikola simply can never compete for enough demand to be profitable, in my opinion.
Ignoring all benefits of doubts and favourable assumptions, I don’t think Nikola can survive even half that time!
Ignoring all benefits of doubts and favourable assumptions, I don’t think Nikola can survive even half that time!
In reality, they have $0 in actual preorders.
Also, how is it still only $10bn? Has their order book seriously not grown at all for the past years?
Also, how is it still only $10bn? Has their order book seriously not grown at all for the past years?
This implies that Trevor believes that without going public he could have become the next WeWork. #WeTruck 
, which tbf, was likely. However, Trevor’s reasons to go public and why WeWork failed are nonsense! Just look at most big cap tech stock FFS!
, which tbf, was likely. However, Trevor’s reasons to go public and why WeWork failed are nonsense! Just look at most big cap tech stock FFS!
Ah, Jason, you are truly a man after my own heart!
Yes! Trevor’s narrative is one perspective but it is a perspective ignoring numerous counter-examples!
Yes! Trevor’s narrative is one perspective but it is a perspective ignoring numerous counter-examples!
Really, this whole thing of private companies becoming like WeWork is all to do with being like WeWork (!)
If you are a narcissist with a flimsy business model marketing yourself as a tech company when you really aren’t, you will probably fail like WeWork! IPOs won’t stop that!
If you are a narcissist with a flimsy business model marketing yourself as a tech company when you really aren’t, you will probably fail like WeWork! IPOs won’t stop that!
As much as I would like to believe that a company would go public to be nice to retail investors, I really doubt that was ever a consideration. Far more common and likely: Nikola needed the cash, hence the rush through a SPAC acquisition which has far less scrutiny!
Umm, I’m pretty sure executives of public companies cannot say shit like this!
Jason is my boy!
16th ever Tesla Roadster? Damn! That’s cool!
16th ever Tesla Roadster? Damn! That’s cool!
Fuck me! I honestly am so tired of this so-called ‘weight advantage’ of hydrogen. It simply does not exist! What is actually the case is that Nikola’s tech is just worse than Tesla’s, hence why Nikola’s BEV trucks weigh more.
See this: https://twitter.com/nikola_truth/status/1288919998803652610?s=21
See this: https://twitter.com/nikola_truth/status/1288919998803652610?s=21
Standardisation is good, don’t get me wrong, and it does of course get costs down but are we seriously meant to believe it drives costs down by such a huge amount?
And forgive me but what the hell has Nikola done differently from $4/kg to $3/kg?
And forgive me but what the hell has Nikola done differently from $4/kg to $3/kg?
AFAIK, the actual station cost will account for a relatively tiny amount of the per kg cost over time. The biggest factor in that is energy costs. And whilst there can be some improvements there, I struggle to see how Nikola claims to keep improving that cost by over 33%!
All I am asking for is to see how they can promise such low prices. We’d need to see actual deals with power companies if this is to even begin to be believed!
Also, even at $3/kg hydrogen, filling a Tesla Semi is still cheaper!
Also, even at $3/kg hydrogen, filling a Tesla Semi is still cheaper!
About $1/mile? Knowing Trevor that’s anything from $1/mile to $1.50/mile but let’s say $1/mile and compare to Semi.
Semi is >2kWh/mile @ $0.07/kWh so let’s say $0.14/mile (hydrogen is $3/kg / 8kg/mile so $0.375/mile)
Truck costs are probably similar at $180k
Depreciation over 700k miles for a Tesla won’t be much relative to the Nikola
Wages would be the same to start with but Tesla will
Truck costs are probably similar at $180k
Depreciation over 700k miles for a Tesla won’t be much relative to the Nikola
Wages would be the same to start with but Tesla will
soon remove the need for any driver.
I will assume maintenance will be the same.
Insurance will probably be lower for the Tesla.
Filling station/charger CapEx will likely be lower for Tesla including solar + batteries.
Am I missing anything?
I will assume maintenance will be the same.
Insurance will probably be lower for the Tesla.
Filling station/charger CapEx will likely be lower for Tesla including solar + batteries.
Am I missing anything?
What is unclear is whether or not the ~$1/mile is what’s paid to Nikola or the customer’s cost (likely the former) but what is clear is that Tesla Semi customers’ cost per mile will be far less than Nikola customers’ cost per mile!
What disingenuous crap from Trevor! It’s not 15klbs vs $120lbs you liar!
Hydrogen’s weight penalty comes in all of its supporting systems like plumbing, the fuel cell, the 9 tanks and the necessary battery pack too! All in all, this’ll probably weigh nearly the same as batteries!
Hydrogen’s weight penalty comes in all of its supporting systems like plumbing, the fuel cell, the 9 tanks and the necessary battery pack too! All in all, this’ll probably weigh nearly the same as batteries!
Umm, wut?
Also, ‘hundreds of billions’ I don’t thinks so, Trevor. But if that is true, why is hydrogen not really any further than in 1960?
Also, ‘hundreds of billions’ I don’t thinks so, Trevor. But if that is true, why is hydrogen not really any further than in 1960?
Oh boy.
Well let’s ignore that Trevor’s definition of ‘a couple’ is ‘four’, Nikola has only done one of these things, the preorders. Even then, that’s far from guaranteed!
Well let’s ignore that Trevor’s definition of ‘a couple’ is ‘four’, Nikola has only done one of these things, the preorders. Even then, that’s far from guaranteed!
Firstly, you haven’t made anybody or their aunt go zero emission. You haven’t delivered a damn thing but you have promised the Diesel Bros 2 million shares. Not looking good so far!
Secondly, ‘10 to 20 times more revenue’?! Bitch, please!
A diesel truck costs ~$120k. Are we really meant to think Nikola will get >$1.2 mil to $2.4mil per truck? Not a chance in hell!
Even they only estimate $750k in the truck’s lifetime!
A diesel truck costs ~$120k. Are we really meant to think Nikola will get >$1.2 mil to $2.4mil per truck? Not a chance in hell!
Even they only estimate $750k in the truck’s lifetime!
Besides, any Tesla truck using Megachargers, Tesla Insurance and (by default) Tesla’s maintenance will probably also get hundreds of thousands of dollars for Tesla in its life.
That said, making 10-20x more revenue on the same thing just means you’re hella expensive!
That said, making 10-20x more revenue on the same thing just means you’re hella expensive!
And finally, ‘great margins’? If you can get 30% margins, that is pretty good but we only have your word for that.
As far as I know, this isn’t actually true. In fact, a lot of $TSLA people jokingly made Nikola truck preorders because they were free and non-binding.
Maybe some orders are more like contracts but a good number, if not the majority, are not!
Maybe some orders are more like contracts but a good number, if not the majority, are not!
Also, the clauses about Nikola having to deliver I believe are not as simple as Nikola must deliver any truck but instead that they have to hit certain performance criteria. This is far from guaranteed!
Hahahaha, I love Jason!
Trevor all cocky saying he will beat Tesla to market (like that even really matters) and Jason correctly says ‘you’re not actually building the trucks yourself’!
Love it!
Trevor all cocky saying he will beat Tesla to market (like that even really matters) and Jason correctly says ‘you’re not actually building the trucks yourself’!
Love it!
Error 404: brain not found.
Oh, so maybe that’s why the factory they just did groundbreaking on has zero actual construction. Little baby Trevor needs IVECO to hold his hand again!
Someone tell this idiot that the restrictions have been lifted!
Now Nikola/IVECO is stuck with an uncompetitive design whilst Tesla isn’t. Interesting.
Also, what I will never get is why on Earth Nikola is actually manufacturing the Tre *in the United States*! So dumb!
Now Nikola/IVECO is stuck with an uncompetitive design whilst Tesla isn’t. Interesting.
Also, what I will never get is why on Earth Nikola is actually manufacturing the Tre *in the United States*! So dumb!
Tesla won’t give you credit for shit! You don’t deserve credit for shit!
And ‘Tesla’s started to tell people they’re gonna start selling energy at a fixed rate for them’? Oh, have they? Just now? Definitely not in 2017 at their unveil?
Do some research for fuck’s sake!
And ‘Tesla’s started to tell people they’re gonna start selling energy at a fixed rate for them’? Oh, have they? Just now? Definitely not in 2017 at their unveil?
Do some research for fuck’s sake!
Ah, fuck. I thought this argument was gone for good!
How many times will I have to say, if you and another company have a product designed to satisfy similar needs, you are in competition! Even a young child can understand this very basic idea!
How many times will I have to say, if you and another company have a product designed to satisfy similar needs, you are in competition! Even a young child can understand this very basic idea!
Jason pretty much explains that Tesla’s initial plans of using an OEM almost killed them and that you lose control. I expect the same could happen with Nikola tbh.
Even if it works well, having enough partners to make a suicide bomber jealous seriously limits your business’
Even if it works well, having enough partners to make a suicide bomber jealous seriously limits your business’
ability to innovate rapidly. You really do lose control!
Also, you lose a lot of margin. Tesla has learned that if you want to do something well, it’s best to learn how to do it yourself. And the result? Tesla is arguably the most innovative company on the planet!
Also, you lose a lot of margin. Tesla has learned that if you want to do something well, it’s best to learn how to do it yourself. And the result? Tesla is arguably the most innovative company on the planet!
And in this game, innovation is king! That’s the only reason why legacy auto, with their historically much bigger balance sheets have failed embarrassingly to even beat an 8 year old Model S!
Ok, let’s talk self-driving.
Truckers earn usually up to $0.40/per mile. In terms of cost per mile, which trucking is all about, that’s a huge deal! Not a big deal but a huge deal!
A manually driven truck cannot compete with an autonomous truck.
Truckers earn usually up to $0.40/per mile. In terms of cost per mile, which trucking is all about, that’s a huge deal! Not a big deal but a huge deal!
A manually driven truck cannot compete with an autonomous truck.
Tesla is in the lead with autonomy by a huge mile. This is as good as fact!
Also, Tesla has a huge fleet dataset to convince regulators that their software is safe enough to be operated without a driver.
This will probably take several years to be caught up to, legal wise.
Also, Tesla has a huge fleet dataset to convince regulators that their software is safe enough to be operated without a driver.
This will probably take several years to be caught up to, legal wise.
With demand being the only constraint, Tesla will be the only truly competitive product on the market for several years!
Whatever approach Nikola takes, they will not be able to change these near facts!
Death is coming for Nikola, no doubt!
Whatever approach Nikola takes, they will not be able to change these near facts!
Death is coming for Nikola, no doubt!
Autonomy is a commodity? Excuse me, what the fuck?
Where’s that edit button? I meant supply, not demand!
What a bunch of shit from Trevor! He knew perfectly well that Tesla existed and he knew perfectly well that marketing himself as the next Tesla by calling himself Nikola would benefit him!
I mean, I did the same thing to an extent. It’s an obvious thing to do!
I mean, I did the same thing to an extent. It’s an obvious thing to do!
My original account, @Blamblas, was making the same style of tweets before I made this account but Nikola Tesla has a much stronger brand than Blamblas or, in Nikola’s case, Bluegentech, which was their original name.
What annoys me is to pretend it was anything different! Trevor himself calls it a dick move, which it is, but it’s also brilliant marketing and in my opinion is the only reason why the company is where it is.
Ignorant investors will like at the name and product lineup only and
Ignorant investors will like at the name and product lineup only and
conclude that Nikola is the next Tesla. It’s incredibly dumb but it’s what happens! Even those who do research will already have the bias of looking for evidence of the next Tesla instead of looking at Nikola on its own merits.
Trevor might not be smart but he isn’t a fool in this regard. The man knows how to frame a falsehood!
No debt?
What happened to that small business Coronavirus relief fund?
What happened to that small business Coronavirus relief fund?
Woah, I didn’t expect Trevor to be this honest. He is practically admitting he made Badger to reach out to Robinhood-like investors essentially to inflate his valuation by 10x 
$60k-$90k is not a reasonable price for a pickup when the F-150 starts at half that!
And next year, haha, I’ll believe that only when I see it.
And next year, haha, I’ll believe that only when I see it.
I seriously doubt they have an OEM partner. Again, I’ll believe it when I see it!
Exactly. There will not be a hydrogen network for several years from now, rendering Badger as essentially a shit BEV, much like many non-Tesla BEVs.
Sometimes Trevor can be funny to listen to but at times like this, he is just infuriating!
These figures are incorrect and I believe he knows that! Cybertruck goes up to 500 miles, Badger goes up to 600 miles.
At full load that’s 250 and 300. Not 100 or 150 miles you liar!
These figures are incorrect and I believe he knows that! Cybertruck goes up to 500 miles, Badger goes up to 600 miles.
At full load that’s 250 and 300. Not 100 or 150 miles you liar!
What?! There is a lot of money in batteries! They are still the most expensive component for crying out loud!
Sure, a single cell is cheap but Tesla buys probably trillions of cells!
Also there’s no way the CapEx would cause an increase of 30% of the cell cost at Tesla’s scale!
Sure, a single cell is cheap but Tesla buys probably trillions of cells!
Also there’s no way the CapEx would cause an increase of 30% of the cell cost at Tesla’s scale!
This is fucking perfect though! 
Kinda interesting that when asked about what monumental change Tesla should do, Trevor first says the classic ‘we don’t want to give that away’, which is the same level as ‘I know, but how do I know that you know?’
Then he suggests what amounts to a big drone?
Then he suggests what amounts to a big drone?
But as Jason points out, Elon could pretty much just use a Hyperloop (or even a standard Boring Company Loop)
What really happened, I reckon, is that Trevor was giving the big talk as always and then got caught out and had to think on his feet and suggested
What really happened, I reckon, is that Trevor was giving the big talk as always and then got caught out and had to think on his feet and suggested
something that Elon already mentioned, that being an EVTOL aircraft.
By the way, aircraft are only a tiny portion of emissions so Tesla would probably be best to leave this until when they can do multiple trivial things at once. (Or just leave it to The Boring Company)
By the way, aircraft are only a tiny portion of emissions so Tesla would probably be best to leave this until when they can do multiple trivial things at once. (Or just leave it to The Boring Company)
HAHAHAHAHA wtf?
Umm, this is not the answer you’ve always given about having ‘too much control’.
Also, if they’re scared about you having too much control, why would they allow you to increase your shares by 16%? Doesn’t add up.
Why not just admit you wanted the money?
Also, if they’re scared about you having too much control, why would they allow you to increase your shares by 16%? Doesn’t add up.
Why not just admit you wanted the money?
Now you’ve heard it from the horse’s mouth. The Badger deal is *not* closed!
As for ‘just having to sign some paperwork’, I call bullshit there. I think the OEMs want some demand assurance and so far they haven’t got it!
As for ‘just having to sign some paperwork’, I call bullshit there. I think the OEMs want some demand assurance and so far they haven’t got it!
So in case you didn’t know, Nikola currently has zero ‘safe’ Nikola Tre prototypes!
Also, contrary to Trevor’s narrative, Tesla has been testing with fleets since 2017 or 2018 so he can fuck off with that nonsense and speak only for himself!
Also, contrary to Trevor’s narrative, Tesla has been testing with fleets since 2017 or 2018 so he can fuck off with that nonsense and speak only for himself!
Right, so when asked the question below, Trevor responded with three things: Badger OEM, which doesn’t exist, Tre deliveries, which is a good answer but for some reason hasn’t even been properly tested yet, and Nikola World, their annual hype fest and now stock-pump. Riiight.
A few bits at the end. One was whether Tesla could reintroduce battery swapping again.
Though this would increase ’charge time’, I don’t think it makes sense. Trevor said it would cost more but given that Megachargers would have batteries anyway, this isn’t true or relevant.
Though this would increase ’charge time’, I don’t think it makes sense. Trevor said it would cost more but given that Megachargers would have batteries anyway, this isn’t true or relevant.
Especially when you realise that batteries not used in vehicles can make money through Autobidder.
However, I still think battery swapping is wholly unnecessary as charge time with sufficient power is limited by cell chemistry and temperature only, not battery capacity.
However, I still think battery swapping is wholly unnecessary as charge time with sufficient power is limited by cell chemistry and temperature only, not battery capacity.
As such, for the same reason that Tesla opted to not do battery swaps in 2012, they shouldn’t do it now either.
Alrighty then, that’s all that’s in this thread. I’m sure I’ve missed one or two things so feel free to let me know.
I hope you’ve had a good day, goodbye for now!
[End of Thread]
I hope you’ve had a good day, goodbye for now!
[End of Thread]
