A note on the now ended $600 federal add-on. All of the evidence we had pointed to the same story: the benefit was not preventing reemployment.

But anecdotally employers say they can't find workers, which they attribute to the $600.

Some things to consider:
(thread)
1/n

We shouldn't dismiss the anecdotes just because they don't align with the larger story. Like I've said before, the US has 160 million workers: every edge case happens.

My concern with the anecdotes is that the employers are assigning causality: it's because of the $600.
2/n

Other potential causes:
1. Virtually all parents in the US have either seen a dramatic reduction in child care or lost it completely

2. There is a deadly, highly contagious virus that has killed over 150,000 and infected 4.5 million Americans
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
3/n

Are workers afraid? Do they feel safe at work? Is the employer providing PPE? Are they sick? Is someone in their family sick? Are they at risk? Is someone in their family at risk? Do they have child care? How much child care? How consistent?

^difficult to answer
4/n

Do they get $600/week extra if they lost their job because of the pandemic?

^easier to answer
5/n

The $600 is an accessible explanation because its discernible and manipulable; as a policy it can be turned on and (as we have seen) turned off.

But it's just one explanation. We should acknowledge that some workers aren't going back to work, but we can't assume why.
6/end