Last week’s 750 billion-euro ($877 billion) Covid-19 rescue fund marked a high point in the EU’s economic plan.

But a new flare-up in infections on the continent is a grim reminder of the more immediate epidemiological threat: a potential second wave https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Cases are rising at the fastest pace since lockdowns were lifted, although overall infections remain much lower than the outbreak’s April peak.

In Spain, new daily cases are over 2,000, driven by spikes in areas such as Aragon and Catalonia https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

In some places, nightclubs are now being closed and curfews are being applied on bars.

Belgium's increase in infections has forced the government to roll out tougher social-distancing measures, such as limiting face-to-face interactions https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Even if offices and public transport are still quiet, European streets are filled with:

Shoppers
Diners
Drinkers

Google mobility data indicate human traffic is almost back to pre-virus levels in Paris, Madrid and Italy’s Lombardy https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Estimates of the virus’s reproduction rate suggest that it’s risen back to around or above 1 in the following countries:

The U.K.
France
Italy
Spain
Belgium

That means one infected person will on average spread it to more than one other person https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

So far, the alertness of public authorities has been encouraging.

While one might question whether nightclubs in Catalonia should have reopened, you could hardly accuse governments in general of sleepwalking into a new public-health crisis https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Smaller “smart lockdowns” have been effective too in towns and regions in Germany, the U.K. and Italy.

That’s testament to the improvement in mask-wearing and virus monitoring tools since the peak of the outbreak https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Less reassuring are the signs of social-distancing fatigue among young people. In Spain, people in their 20s and 30s are a key source of new infections. This is driven by:

Warm weather
Vacation season
Reopening of bars
Restaurants https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

Europe’s ability to avoid a new spiral of infections and lockdowns depends on testing and tracing.

Much has improved in this department: France, Spain and Italy are testing so widely that only an estimated 1% of tests return a positive result https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM 

This “new normal” of having to respond to the virus on a daily basis was never going to be easy.

Until a vaccine or treatment is found it will create huge uncertainty for business sectors such as leisure and tourism https://trib.al/wZ3Q5QM