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Here’s another late night thread on #hurricaneIsaias. Buckle up! The good news for our area is #Isais will interact with land twice before it gets to our area. At least that’s how it looks right now. Below is the latest forecast track from the NHC.
The Ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, looks at this time, strong enough that it will nudge #Isais close enough to the east coast of Florida, that it will stop the strengthening of the storm. Or possibly even weaken it a bit. Florida is really flat, so even if the...
eye grazes the coast, there won’t be as much weakening as if it went over a mountainous area like let’s say the island of Hispaniola. The NHC thinks #Isais will make a second impact near the NC/SC border Monday night as a strong Tropical Storm. It’s also worth noting that...
the storm will start to accelerate at this point northeastward. Re-emerging into the Atlantic early Tuesday morning. It won’t spend but a few hours over land. But it will be enough to weaken the system enough that it won’t be able to get up to hurricane strength by the time...
we see effects here. The NHC is forecasting conditions will start going downhill Tuesday afternoon from south to north. We’ll time it all out when we get closer to possible impact. It’s worth noting, due to the acceleration of the system. This will work against it as well from...
possibly strengthening at all. If this forecast verifies, most of us will be clear of the storm by daybreak Wednesday. The forecast is for sustained winds of 60-65 MPH as it comes through our area. A few gusts up to 75MPH. These winds would be confined near the center of the...
storm. And would likely be found with some of the heavier bands of rain near center. Based on this track, would likely only be felt on Long Island and SE Connecticut. Most of us would see 30-50MPH sustained. Maybe a 60 MPH gust here or there in a heavy feeder band. Storm surge...
flooding would be possible. It’s too early to predict where and how high...
Now the GFS... It really mimics the NHC forecast. The earlier 12Z run of Euro looks similar as well. All impacts I listed above are what we would see with both current model solutions. I want to note, level of uncertainty for our area remains high. Huge tweaks are possible...
for forecasts past 72 hours. Our area is outside that window. We typically get a good handle on tropical system tracks inside 72 hours. Even then it can get dicey. But usually at that point, the tweaks become smaller and smaller, and we start to get a good feel on a precise...
track. We still have plenty of time to watch. By Sunday night, we should have a good idea of roughly where the storm will pass, and what type of impacts we’ll see. Also, our entire area is inside the cone of uncertainty. So, once again we can’t focus on one specific dot on a...
