Mexico has surpassed the UK in confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Over the course of July, Mexico also shot past the former hotspots of Spain, France and Italy to take the #3 spot in the global ranking.

Studies of excess mortality suggest the pandemic's toll in Mexico may be 3x higher.

What's changed since I wrote this overview of Mexico's pandemic response strategy is 1) deaths have increased by nearly 10K and 2) the govt has released partial data on excess mortality during the pandemic, based on death certificates in 20 states. https://towardfreedom.org/story/few-tests-little-contact-tracing-as-coronavirus-spikes-in-mexico/

The govt's excess mortality findings are based on data from 20 (out of 31 + federal district) states and cover a period from mid-April to the end of June. The govt calculated expected mortality for this period to be 130,763. Deaths occurred: 202,077. Excess mortality: 71,314.

Within that period, the govt-acknowledged COVID deaths in those states was 22,367. But "excess mortality" was 71,314. In other words, only one in three deaths above average levels corresponds to a case in which lab-confirmed COVID was the official cause of death.

Why say govt-acknowledged deaths? Because the official pandemic toll only includes people confirmed to have had the virus via PCR test. Testing criteria is very restrictive here. On this chart of tests per 1000 people, the line at the bottom that that's barely budged is Mexico.

When overall mortality surpassed that of Spain, France & Italy, the spin was to scale tolls to population size. That would be fair if the data were of an equal standard, but it's not, due to free testing criteria that excludes most symptomatic & nearly all pre/asymptomatic cases.

Then there's the matter of excess mortality, touched on earlier in the thread. The period analyzed ended June 30, whereas July brought even more deaths. The study also excluded 10 states, including places (Tabasco, Nayarit, etc) where hospital occupancy rates have been very high.

A detail that jumped out at me in the govt analysis of excess mortality is that people aged 45-64 are by far the most over-represented group. Mortality for that age group during the pandemic in Mexico was - by June 30 - nearly twice what it should be, based on historic averages.

Criteria here prioritizes tests for symptomatic patients with conditions or age that would put them into a high-risk category. Adults <65 without preexisting conditions often can't qualify for free tests. Yet excess mortality data shows 45-64yo's dying at disproportional rates.

But OK, let's look at pandemic mortality in Mexico through the lens of deaths per million, per govt framing. But let's take into account the statistical biases of 1) restrictive testing and 2) reporting only lab-confirmed cases in govt-acknowledged counts.

Restricted testing means fewer confirmed cases, which can lead to an undercount of deaths. Studies show confirmed COVID caused ~1 in 3 deaths in excess of avg mortality in parts of Mexico. Not all excess mortality is due to the virus. But say 2 of the 3 deaths above avg is COVID.

If 2 of 3 excess mortality deaths is due to COVID, Mexico would outrank every country but Belgium and microstate San Marino in deaths per million. But Belgium includes ALL pandemic excess mortality in its official toll. If same standard applied, Mexico would also surpass Belgium.

Even if just examining the deaths linked to lab-confirmed cases, Mexico is paying an outsized cost in human lives. The official strategy's herd immunity approach is allowing a deadly virus to run through a population with high rates of hypertension, diabetes, obesity AND poverty.