[THREAD]
BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS 20/21

Having failed miserably with finding the right set & forget GK last season, Heaton, Gazzaniga and Foster to name a few I owned, I am keen on nailing it from the start next season.

Therefore, I have compiled some stats that should be considered when picking your 20/21 season GK.

Firstly, I looked at the defensive performance for each club for the 19/20 season using 2 stats:

1. xGA90 - how many goals was the team expected to concede per 90 minutes. The lower the better for the clean sheets.

2. Shots conceded per 90 - to gauge possibility of save points.

The ideal defence would concede lots of low probability shots every 90 minutes; thus maintaining a low xGA sum. This would allow both clean sheet points *and* save points.

The described "ideal defence" would be bottom right in this plot.

...

This, however, is somewhat of an fpl utopia - but the principle stands:

The closer to the bottom right the better.

We can see that last season's top 6 are also clear in terms of clean sheet potential, but more shots per 90 can weigh up for less clean sheet potential.

The "best" 12 teams in terms of defending (with regards to GK points) are therefore:

- MCI
- LIV
- CHE
- WOL
- MUN
- LEI
- BUR
- ARS
- TOT
- EVE
- SHU
- SOU

with EVE, SHU and SOU as possible budget picks, and due to, presumably, less attacking potential, their GK might get bps.

On a more individual note, one of the best ways to study shot stopping ability from a GK is to compare post-shot xG (psxG) with actual goals conceded.

In this plot, a goalkeeper's shot stopping ability for the 19/20 season was above average if they are beneath the red line.

From the 12 teams mentioned before Lloris, Henderson, McCarthy, Leno, de Gea (!!) and Schmeichel were above average shot stoppers last season. Pope and Patricio just missed out but their defences were really strong candidates so at the right price they should still be considered.

Without knowing the prices and possible defensive additions from the transfer windows it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions.

But, if Lloris is £5.0m he'll be straight in my team. Otherwise my eyes are on McCarthy (£4.5m) and Henderson/Schmeichel/Leno/Patricio (£5.0m).

Thanks for reading if you've made it this far, that would be all for this thread

Happy as always to discuss any questions and which GK *you* have your eyes on for the upcoming season

[End of thread]