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New: The weekly @TheEconomist/ @YouGovAmerica surveys ask about voter enthusiasm in three ways, which allows for a reality check on the Trump-Biden "enthusiasm gap" 1/ https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
There is a big gap (28 points) in expressed enthusiasm for Trump & Biden among their respective supporters... 2/
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
However...that gap narrows to single digits when the "enthusiasm" question is about the *election* rather than the *candidates* 3/
And the Trump-Biden gap disappears altogether when we ask about the "importance" of voting for president in 2020 4/
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
Same pattern - no significant gap - when looking at the "likelihood of voting" question asked by the YouGov/ @CBSNewsPoll battleground tracker 5/
Consistent with other research from @kabir_here @NotMelissaBell & @RnMendoz showing enthusiasm and excitement are poor predictors of turnout in recent elections - see full article for more 6/6 https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap">https://today.yougov.com/topics/po...
