https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">If university students aren& #39;t tested every 2-3 days, "colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death." 1/
https://consumer.healthday.com/infectious-disease-information-21/coronavirus-1008/college-students-will-need-covid-tests-every-2-3-days-for-campus-safety-study-760002.html">https://consumer.healthday.com/infectiou...
This according to @ADPaltiel, a Professor of health policy at @YaleSPH, in comments on epidemological modelling, for which he was lead investigator, published today in JAMAhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 2/ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2768923">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/...
PS: The study published in JAMA is co-authored by 2 Harvard scientists & has informed the university& #39;s decision to test students every 3 days as a condition of opening their halls of residence to reduced capacity re-opening. See threadhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 1/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1280568912573333504">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
Note that Harvard Arts & Sciences doesn& #39;t even regard testing every 3 days as sufficient to ensure the safety of in-person teaching & will be conducting their teaching entirely online in 2020-21. 2/
One further comment on Harvard& #39;s approachhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 3/3 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1269362108422029317">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
Further comment by @ADPaltiel: Acknowledges challenge & expense of testing every 3 days but says that, given risks to faculty & staff, any university unwilling to test so frequently "has to ask itself if it has any business reopening". 1/
https://news.yale.edu/2020/07/31/students-need-be-tested-every-2-3-days-colleges-safely-reopen">https://news.yale.edu/2020/07/3...
Disappointing that @UniversitiesUK employers have not explained why, in spite of these findings, they nevertheless think it possible safely to re-open campuses to in-person teaching in the absence of such frequent testing. They simply ignore this challenge. @jim_dickinson 2/2
As @ADPaltiel also noteshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben">: "The reason [why testing of only those with symptoms is insufficient] is clear -- this virus can be transmitted by highly infectious asymptomatic silent spreaders". 2/
On the basis of a number of cited papers, the model assumes "a 30% probability that infection would eventually lead to observable COVID-19–defining symptoms in this young cohort" -- i.e., 70% of those 18-30 years old who have Covid-19 infection never develop symptoms. 3/
JAMA also includes a responsehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">to this paper, co-authored by @ehbvassar, a health economist who is President of Vassar College & past founder & Director of Yale Global Health Leadership Institute. 4/ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2768917">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/...
. @ehbvassar doesn& #39;t dispute @ADPaltiel& #39;s assertion that symptomatic testing is insufficient. But she argues that, for a small residential liberal arts college such as Vassar in a college town, testing all students (including asymptomatic) only every 4 weeks might be enough. 5/
What accounts for this difference? I think it& #39;s mainly that @ehbvassar believes Vassar College could improve on even the most optimistic of @ADPaltiel& #39;s three modelled scenarios (base, worst case, & best case). 6/
. @ADPaltiel& #39;s best case scenario assumes 10 new infections per week (from outside the student community) per 10,000 students. It also assumes an Rt of 1.5 (i.e., each infected student transmits to 1.5 others on average). 7/
By contrast, @ehbvassar assumes 4 new infections per week per 10,000 students "given that [Vassar students mainly live in halls of residence on campus and] we will limit student movement off campus and significantly reduce student interactions with faculty and employees". 8/
. @ehbvassar also assumes an Rt of 1.25 "given that we will have extensive social distancing, masking, and other measures". These measures are spelled out in more detailhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. Note that they don& #39;t much address transmission among students in halls of residence & while socialising. 9/
Presumably, students will be allowed to venture off campus in the evening. Assuming that the local bars are allowed to remain open, the risks of super-spreader events such as thishttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">will remain, even w social distancing. 10/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1284758183521726464">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
Even if the bars of Poughkeepsie, New York, are all shut down, student will mix & socialise. There will be house partieshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. It& #39;s also possible that some will sleep with one another. @ehbvassar will not be able to impose & enforce monastic vows. 11/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1285814841169584133">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
For the reasons spelled outhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben">, & in this threadhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">, an Rt as low as 1.25 for students in residence stretches credulity. @ADPaltiel& #39;s best case scenario of Rt of 1.5 is more credible. (Note that "dorm" is American for UK "hall of residence".) 12/ https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1278368955044782081">https://twitter.com/gregggons...
What about @ehbvassar& #39;s assumption of only 4 new infections per 10k per week from outside the student community, rather than @ADPaltiel& #39;s best case of 10 per week? 13/
. @ADPaltiel calls these new infections "exogenous shocks" & describes how they might arisehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 14/
The above-mentioned super-spreader event in the East Lansing bar is one good example of an "exogenous shock". It& #39;s not clear how @ehbvassar will manage to "limit student movement off campus" to prevent this. 15/
The number of new infections per week from outside the student population will also crucially depend on the general rate of infections in the surrounding community. 16/
In England, this has been rising in recent weeks as things have re-opened. We can infer from the latest ONS figures that the general rate in England is now about 5.5 new infections per week per 10,000 people. 17/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop...
This rate has also been almost twice as high among those 18-49 years old, in comparison with other age groups. 18/
Absent, therefore, significant reduction in general rate of infection in England this autumn -- contrary to prediction colder weather & school re-openings will lead to a rise -- it& #39;s unrealistic to assume better than @ADPaltiel& #39;s best case 10 per 10k weekly new infections. 19/
Upshot: What @ADPaltiel say herehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">, in the very first tweet of this thread, applies to universities in England & not just the US. 20/ https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1289243511414558721">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
. @UniversitiesUK @UCEA1 @RussellGroup @AlistairJarvis
& other university leaders in this nation: This modelling merits a response. Please stop pretending it doesn& #39;t exist. As @gregggonsalves said of an earlier draft of the JAMA paperhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 21/ https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1280560141952331777">https://twitter.com/gregggons...
You owe it to your students, your staff & the residents of the communities in which you& #39;re located to explain how you& #39;ve established the safety of re-opening universities in the autumn in the absence of regular & frequent testing of students, asymptomatic & symptomatic. 22/22
PS: In early July I asked these questionshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">re pre-print of the @ADPaltiel et al study. No explanation for why this isn& #39;t necessary here. I hope @markmleach @jim_dickinson @jgro_the @RichardA @sweale or @branwenjeffreys might be able to elicit explanation. https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1280568912573333504">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
Shockingly weak @UniversitiesUK statement of Covid safety measures all unis will adopt, in linked piece by @AnnaFazack1. No mention of testing, ventilation or face masks. Only hand sanitisers, cleaning & 1-way & 2m markings. @AlistairJarvis, is that it!?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/01/uk-universities-putting-finances-above-student-safety-expert-warns">https://www.theguardian.com/education...
In a plan & #39;typical& #39; of large US state universities, UC Berkeley will test all residential students on arrival, followed by 7-10 day quarantine in single dorm room, then re-test to confirm Covid-negative status. Separate dorm for those who test positive. 1/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/us/covid-college-reopening.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/0...
Followed by planned testing 2x month of all students in halls of residence. Are any @UniversitiesUK employers planning such initial testing & quarantine for ALL students in residence? Regular testing later? Single rooms for all? Separate hall for quarantine? If not, why not? 2/2
Further information on today& #39;s @BBCr4today:
--Interview w John Bell, Oxford’s Regius Professor of Medicine, starting at 7:13 am.
--Piece starting at 6:10 am.
--Interview with a government minister from 8:22 am. 2/
In a few hours, and for the next month, these will be available to listen to herehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 3/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj9z/episodes/player">https://www.bbc.co.uk/programme...
Information gleaned from the above:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">The test can be based on saliva (either throat swab or spit into a cup) rather than somewhat intrusive & unpleasant nasal swab.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">It can test for the flu as well as Covid-19. 4/
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Results within 90 minutes, by use of either a desktop machine or a palm-sized device which doesn& #39;t require technical expertise to use. So any university can set up rapid testing sites for students & staff. 5/5
You can follow @MikeOtsuka.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: