1/12 So "prohibition does work" says the editor of the research journal 'Tobacco Control' @MaloneRuth

Really? Where to start?

A thread. https://twitter.com/MaloneRuth/status/1289045074542698497

/2 Firstly, the comparison with heroin is truly absurd. Heroin is highly disruptive or intrusive for many (not all) users and demand is low.

Unlike alcohol or many illicit drugs, nicotine does not lead to overdose, intoxication, violence, accidents, job loss or family breakdown.

3/ The opioid experience in the US is a disaster. Heroin is not a success story

"Opioids were involved in approximately 70% (46,802) of drug overdose deaths during 2018"

These are younger than smoking-related deaths - a high toll in lost life-years. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6911a4.htm

4/ Prohibition does not stop illicit drug use: past-month illicit drug use prevalence = 24.0% 12th grade Americans (MTF, 2018 data).

Nearly the same as report 'any vaping' 26.7%, which will include illicit THC vaping. https://www.drugabuse.gov/drug-topics/trends-statistics/monitoring-future/monitoring-future-study-trends-in-prevalence-various-drugs

5/ Prohibiting cigarettes is about the worst idea yet from tobacco control - and follows the failure of every measure in its 'tobacco endgame' proposals of 2013.

Endgame proposals: https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/22/suppl_1

My critique: https://www.clivebates.com/the-tobacco-endgame-a-critical-review-of-the-policy-ideas/

6/ The relatively mild and innocuous drug nicotine will (and should) remain legal. The question is how it is provided in a consumer-acceptable and relatively safe form - within normal risk appetites - over the long term.

See The Endgame Revisited by me: https://tobaccoreporter.com/2020/07/01/the-endgame-revisited/

7/ Phasing out cigarettes by *brute force* rather than by creative destruction through consumer demand for alternatives will fail. Cigarettes could be marginalised in 10-15 years - but only if everyone gets behind the alternatives and the propaganda stops.
https://www.clivebates.com/vaping-tobacco-harm-reduction-nicotine-science-and-policy-q-a/#Q1

8/ The 2019 lung injury outbreak ("EVALI") was *caused by prohibition*. THC vapes are sold through an illicit unregulated criminal supply chain. Vitamin E acetate, a cutting agent, was unscrupulously added to boost profits and caused serious harm to users.
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/e-cigarettes/severe-lung-disease.html

9/ After all the BLM outpourings from tobacco control activists, one might expect a flicker of self-awareness about how prohibitions play out.

See Human Right Watch:

United States - Punishment and Prejudice: Racial Disparities in the War on Drugs
https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/2000/usa/index.htm

10/ But anyone calling prohibition a success should catch up on the Netflix Narcos series.

11/ Or for a less entertaining but more rigorous treatment, read this from my good friends at @TransformDrugs

Counting the Cost of the Drugs War: The Alternative World Drug Report 2nd Edition (2016)

https://transformdrugs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/AWDR-2nd-edition.pdf

12/12 Even Bhutan, the paradise of tobacco prohibitionists, is a dismal failure in the reality-based world. Tobacco use is ~24%
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/272671/wntd_2018_bhutan_fs.pdf?sequence=1

...and according to a 2020 WHO report, there is a thriving black market run by enterprising youth.
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/332194

13/12 Remiss of me not to mention the ongoing tobacco prohibition experiment in South Africa. Actually a mafia take-over.

Surely tobacco prohibitionists like @MaloneRuth will study this? Perhaps by reading this assessment by independent fiscal analysts: http://www.reep.uct.ac.za/news/lighting-illicit-market-report-smoker%E2%80%99s-responses-cigarette-sales-ban-south-africa

14/12 The South African REEP group has done a second report on the South African COVID lockdown and tobacco prohibition:
http://www.reep.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/405/News/REEP2ndreport.pdf

Argues that tax increases would have been better and now the illicit market is established, tax increases may be impossible.