Week 8 NHS Test and Trace data summary. 16/7/20 to 22/07/20.

Short thread this week in a rush as on a staycation.

Headline data in pic, brief summary of main points in thread

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-16-july-to-22-july-2020

Main point

-INCREASE IN CASES for 2nd week running.

These are community cases (pillar 2), not people in hospital/care homes.

There are more tests being done AND a higher percentage positive. Up from 1.35% in wk 7 to 1.43% in wk 8.

Pilllar 2 +ve rate dropped 0.67% to 0.51%.

-Increase in number of contacts from wk 7, and increase in proportion of people providing details of contacts.

This could be more mixing/social/workplace gathering, or more people willing to provide details, but for non complex cases, does mean more contacts/case (next tweet)

- Number of complex contacts overall approx same as last week, but increase in contacts per case (39 in wk 8 from 33 in wk 7). This could be workplace outbreaks or other (P2)?

-For non-complex cases, more cases and more contacts overall, but same approx contacts per case (3.3)

-Decrease in % contacts reached from 78% to 75%

Mainly due to drop from 98% to 95% of complex contacts. For non-complex contacts, v small fall from 61.5% reached to 60.9%

-Decrease in % contacts from the same household from 69% to 63%.

This is an ongoing trend may also be a sign of more social/workplace gatherings and transmission.

-Test time from request to result improving but time taken to reach case and to then reach contacts is worse.

And if there are more week on week cases for wks 7 and 8, and up to a two week lag in testing positive from exposure, then we are seeing the results here of lockdown easing from wks 5 and 6.

Note the major easing policy of bars/restaurants/1m+ etc was 4th July. Wk 6.

So for this not to escalate in a sig uptick in cases, can't stress enough that beyond macro gov policy, the social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, testing, tracing, and isolating are really, REALLY important.

Please, please continue to do it all.

Wk 8. @felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @hughalderwick @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @ShaunLintern @HSJEditor @KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @Billy_Palmer_ @jappleby123 @nedwards_1