About two months ago I raised 5 questions I thought were important in determining how debt relief initiatives (esp. DSSI) will work for resource-rich countries. Here is an update on unfolding answers so far. (1/n) https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/five-questions-how-debt-relief-initiatives-will-work-resource-rich-countries">https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/five...
1. Will debt relief initiatives cover Chinese resource-backed loans (RBLs)?
Unresolved. Some key Chinese SOE lenders of RBLs (esp. CDB) apparently refusing to take part in DSSI but facing push back. https://www.ft.com/content/e0673a53-7fee-4ef7-baaf-66cc97ee3296">https://www.ft.com/content/e...
In Angola an RBL renegotiation between Sinopec and Sonangol is taking bilateral route. According to @china_brief talks go beyond single year freeze, possible restructuring in exchange for infrastructure assets& increased stake in oil fields. https://www.clbrief.com/imf-awaiting-china-angola-debt-deal/">https://www.clbrief.com/imf-await...
3. What will happen to state-owned enterprises’ (SOE) debt?
Unclear. The DSSI relief in theory covers SOE debt with explicit government guarantees. In practice we don& #39;t know how much of current debt freeze relates to SOEs.
4. Will debt relief initiatives deal w corruption/ transparency?
TBD. A large number of countries have committed to put in place anti-corruption measures as part of their @IMFNews financial assistance program. https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/28/corruption-and-covid-19/">https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/2...
These center on #covid19 spending monitoring: publish procurement contracts, expenditure&audit reports, beneficial ownership info (ht @anticorruption). A big leap for some countries w. opaque budgeting+unclear how it deals with fungibility problem. https://www.transparency.org/en/imf-tracker ">https://www.transparency.org/en/imf-tr...
5. Will short-term debt relief suffice to get out of the current crisis?
TBD. The IMF/WB have endorsed the idea of extending debt suspension to 2021. The G20 will decide on extensions in the Fall. https://g20.org/en/media/Documents/Final%20G20%20FMCBG%20Communiqu%C3%A9%20-%20July%202020.pdf">https://g20.org/en/media/...
But there is now also an increased recognition that many DSSI countries will need debt restructuring rather than freezing. This is especially true of oil producers who are facing a permanent shock, as I argued here: https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/imf-optimism-and-oil-dependent-countries-be-wary-sunny-projections-0">https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/imf-... (end).
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