Thread by @fpl_vegan, HOW TO CATCH PLAYERS COMING INTO FORM Tired of bringing in a [...]

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht"> HOW TO CATCH PLAYERS COMING INTO FORM

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">

Tired of bringing in a player who hauls only for them to blank for 3 weeks?

Or sick of selling an underperformer only to see them punish you with a hat trick?

Then this thread is for you......

As part of my post-season analysis I’ve tried to find out how our favourite assets score their points. I’ve looked at about 40 players and tallied;

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚽️" title="Fußball" aria-label="Emoji: Fußball"> How many gameweeks they returned in.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> How these returns have been distributed. i.e in long streaks of returns or drip fed.

I hoped to identify which players are:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="1️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 1" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 1"> Good for long periods of multiple GWs safe in the expectation that they’d deliver points in line with their season average.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="2️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 2" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 2"> Good for short periods where there is evidence to suggest their returns will exceed their season average.

The stats I looked at were:

Total number of returns.

Total number of streaks (i.e. returns in 3 consecutive GWs = 1 streak).

Points for attacking returns (so including goals, assists and bonus points but excluding appearance points).

I then used this data to produce;

Average streak - How many games a player can be expected to return in each streak.

Average return - how many points they deliver when they do return.

Points per streak - how many points they deliver between blanks.

Before I present the findings, I should highlight some (possibly important) limitations of my findings.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="1️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 1" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 1"> It’s a small sample size.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="2️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 2" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 2"> It’s only MIDs and FWDs as I don’t think DEFs are subject to the same levels of fluctuation due to their points coming from team performances.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="3️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 3" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 3"> I’ve manually copied the data from numerous sources including http://understat.com"> http://understat.com and the @OfficialFPL app. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that there are some errors there.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="4️⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 4" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 4"> It ignores the debate around whether form actually exists.

Now to the results.....

SALAH

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇬" title="Flagge von Ägypten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Ägypten">

Average streak: 1.58 games

Average return: 6.58 PPG

Points per streak: 10.42

MANE

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇳" title="Flagge des Senegal" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Senegal">

Average streak: 1.91 games

Average return: 5.29 PPG

Points per streak: 10.09

KDB

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien">

Average streak: 1.83 games

Average return: 5.91 PPG

Points per streak: 10.83

STERLING

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.78 games

Average return: 7.38 PPG

Points per streak: 13.11

MAHREZ

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇿" title="Flagge von Algerien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Algerien">

Average streak: 1.7 games

Average return: 4.82 PPG

Points per streak: 8.2

MADDISON

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.67 games

Average return: 3.9 PPG

Points per streak: 6.5

BRUNO

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇹" title="Flagge von Portugal" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Portugal">

Average streak: 3.67 games

Average return: 5.55 PPG

Points per streak: 20.33

Note: very small sample size but astounding numbers regardless.

SON

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇰🇷" title="Flagge von Südkorea" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Südkorea">

Average streak: 2.43 games

Average return: 5 PPG

Points per streak: 12.14

RASHFORD

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.8 games

Average return: 5.89PPG

Points per streak: 10.6

Note: I expect Rashford to be reclassified so his points have been adjusted.

MOUNT

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.11 games

Average return: 5 PPG

Points per streak: 5.56

PULISIC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">

Average streak: 2.6 games

Average return: 4.38 PPG

Points per streak: 11.4

ADAMA

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇸" title="Flagge von Spanien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Spanien">

Average streak: 1.43 games

Average return: 4.7 PPG

Points per streak: 6.71

GREALISH

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.4 games

Average return: 4.14 PPG

Points per streak: 5.8

KUN

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇷" title="Flagge von Argentinien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Argentinien">

Average streak: 2.8 games

Average return: 5.21 PPG

Points per streak: 14.6

MARTIAL

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇫🇷" title="Flagge von Frankreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Frankreich">

Average streak: 1.8 games

Average return: 4.78 PPG

Points per streak: 8.6

Note: see Rashford

AUBA

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇦" title="Flagge von Gabun" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Gabun">

Average streak: 1.9 games

Average return: 5.11 PPG

Points per streak: 9.7

VARDY

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 3.17 games

Average return: 5.63 PPG

Points per streak: 17.83

KANE

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 1.88 games

Average return: 5.2 PPG

Points per streak: 9.75

INGS

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">

Average streak: 2.1 games

Average return: 4.48 PPG

Points per streak: 9.4

JIMENEZ

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇲🇽" title="Flagge von Mexiko" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Mexiko">

Average streak: 2.63 games

Average return: 4.1 PPG

Points per streak: 10.75

That’s most of the popular assets but the screenshots below show a larger sample of players.

JIMENEZ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

Average streak: 2.63 gamesAverage return: 4.1 PPGPoints per streak: 10.75That’s most of the popular assets but the screenshots below show a larger sample of players." title="JIMENEZ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇲🇽" title="Flagge von Mexiko" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Mexiko"> Average streak: 2.63 gamesAverage return: 4.1 PPGPoints per streak: 10.75That’s most of the popular assets but the screenshots below show a larger sample of players.">

As you can see there is a difference in how players scored points this season.

At one end of the spectrum are players like Salah, KDB and Martial who scored their points in dribs and drabs pretty consistently. Returning for a week of two then blanking the next one or two.

At the other end of the spectrum are players like Vardy, Son, Pulisic & Jimenez who returned multiple GWs in a row before going on similar runs of blanks - ‘streaky’ players.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">SO WHAT TO DO WITH THESE FINDINGS

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">

This is the important part. I think this data shows that chopping and changing between players like Salah & KDB is somewhat futile as their returns are fairly consistent so it’s quite a waste of your precious free transfers.

Next season I’ll be having a few of the consistent attacking players then trying to target the streaky players with my FTs to get on board at the start of their streaks. If you can be fairly confident a player is going to return 3 weeks in a row, you can even miss his 1st return.

I think this reflects conversations I often see on twitter where people complain of selling Salah and getting punished or never being able to catch Son’s run of good form.

Well done

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏻" title="Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏻" title="Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)"> and thank you

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands"> for reading this far. I hope the information I’m trying to convey is clear and you find it somewhat useful. I’d be interested to hear how useful people think this type of analysis is.

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