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With Verlander out for at least two weeks, the @Astros desperately need someone to fill a giant role. Replacing JV’s spot w/ someone as dominant won’t happen. However, they do have some viable options to keep them competitive. My top choice would be Framber Valdez, & here’s why:
First off. He’s a lefty. Now I know this might not seem super important. And honestly it really is, but having a lefty in the rotation is something we haven’t seen from the Astros in awhile and would mix up the look opposing teams get from the Astros starters.
The next reason, is one that sticks out the most. Framber Valdez has a devestating CB. Not only is it in the 96th percentile in spin rate (avg. 2960 RPM), but according to baseball prospectus, it is top 5 in Put Away % (32.9) and top 3 in Whiff % (49.4%) min. 200 pitches).
With his exit velo on the pitch being 87.4 MPH and only giving up a few barrels, this pitch is more than good enough to get outs for the Astros. There are some issues outside of his CB:
His sinker, 4 seam, and change up were all hit fairly well last season, which is a concern for a guy who might be in the starting rotation. You can’t have one pitch in your arsenal and be a successful starting pitcher. There’s hope though:
In 2018, his SI and FB were hit nearly as hard, and here’s why: (graphics from baseballsavant)
The biggest between those two seasons are the location of those pitches. He doesn’t have the metrics that would allow him to get away with pitches in the heart of the plate. He has significant more success working his sinker on the shadows of the zone.
His 4 seam actually has decent success when elevated above the belt. However, he can not afford to miss over the heart of the plate.
Lastly his CH has not been effective since getting into the league. This may be a combo of poor location and poor pitch metrics:
Lastly his CH has not been effective since getting into the league. This may be a combo of poor location and poor pitch metrics:
The results of his CH really stem from its metrics. It does not have the depth to be used over the white of the plate. Based on last years metrics, he would have to nibble on the corners and shadow in order for it to be an effective pitch.
According to @dan_aucoin13’s pitch metrics spreadsheet from 2019, Valdez has a spin direction of ~10:40 for his CH which he throws at ~88 mph (only about 4-5 mph less than FB).
By just adjusting the spin direction to have more side spin (~10:15), @DrivelineBB’s pitch design tool tells me Valdez would see an increase in overall depth in this pitch which, in theory, would make it more effective.
At the end of this, I believe Valdez could be a very good option to replace the JV. This is just my opinion based on the research I did. There could be other reasonable options available. Side note: the research I did was quick & just scratched the surface Valdez as a pitcher.
