Updated 7-day moving averages on daily new case growth. It’s been almost 3 weeks since we last were above the 7% red line. We hit 15% in the first week of July. Remember: if we stay below zero it means we have peaked. 1/2

So, contrary to the universal condemnation of Israel’s 2d wave policy, I actually have reserved judgment. The goal is not to impoverish the country to kill the virus, nor is it to overwhelm health care in the name of freedom or economics, but to find a tolerable balance. 2/

It is not easy and you will get things wrong. The lack of contact tracing is a double error, both keeping you from reaching the right people to quarantine and also keeping you from having good data to make decisions from. However 3/

This doesn’t mean they are doing a bad job per se. Again there is no playbook, and nobody has ever done this before, and the goal is to get through to the other side (I.e vaccine or effective treatment) without too much economic devastation. 4/

One thing you’ll notice is the screaming about the government’s handling includes both people who say we opened up too quickly and those who say we’re not allowing enough people to earn a living. These of course contradict. 5/

And what’s worse is knowing that even if we peak and the second wave ends, we need to be prepared for future waves in which we’ll need to do this dance all over again. With each one we will learn more. But in my view this is pretty close to what a 2d wave *should* look like. 6/6