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[Thread] The autocratic President of #Serbia Vucic threatens today again using racist language: "If Prishtina is not calmed down by its mentors, we'll be five times more successful in campaign to get them derecognized". He also referred to some "peaceful & armed provocations" 1.
Vucic used such language before. In front of UNSC, he called for Kosovars to be "tamed" by the world body in 2019, at the time when Kosovo established it's armed forces, a sovereign move that was fully supported by the US administration. https://www.rferl.org/a/us-backs-kosovo-regular-army-plan-nato-serbia/29641890.html - 2.
In the latest outburst by Vucic, he reacted to the statements by Kosovar PM @Avdullah confirming #Kosovo will continue to seek @UN membership. Vucic claims Kosovo cannot seek membership of international organizations, or else Serbia will continue offensive against Kosovo. -3.
Which leads me to the key point: the dialogue run now by @MiroslavLajcak / @JosepBorrellF cannot continue floating in a limbo of time and space. Kosovar leadership must insist for the final political settlement to be unambiguous and immediate aim of the prompt proces. -4.
Americans were far clearer in their intentions. Both @realDonaldTrump, @SecPompeo & @RichardGrenell but also most recently @JoeBiden have made statements in recent period confirming the mutual recognition between #Kosovo & #Serbia is the final aim of dialogue. -5.
In past, EU & US seemed to also agree border demarcation may be one way to ensure we come to that aim. Many others disagreed, most vehemently Germany + number of analysts (especially those focusing on Bosnia). That idea is shelved but EU is not clear what's the new gameplan. -6.
One interesting & valid argument against border demarcation was the fear it may bring to formation of ethnic states and that ultimately it will bring about unification of #Kosovo and #Albania which will trigger separatist claims by the Serbian-controlled part of Bosnia. -7.
Yet, if EU (+/= Germany/France) after they worked hard to diminish American involvement, continue to slow down the dialogue, then Kosovo is stuck. (THE KEY POINT) On one side Kosovo's integration to international community, especially @NATO family will be delayed indefinitely -8.
On the other side, Serbia (as seen from Vucic's racist threats) will continue to threaten & do everything possible to slow down and reverse Kosovo's integration and membership into important multilaterals which help Kosovo's security, economy and even health ( @WHO membership) -9.
Such a prolonged state of affairs & tensions will inevitably lead to more tensions, potentially exasperated further by Russians or non-state actors (as legitimately feared by US Intel + @StateDept analysts already 2017/2018), which will lead to you know what? -10.
The impatience & inability of Kosovars to move on w/ their lives, blocked by both the EU's lack of consensus (as seen not only in dialogue but also the visalib) and hostile Serbia. Which will ironically give even greater contribution to calls for Albania / Kosovo confederacy. -11
Maybe this is what Serbia is looking for. A "great Albania" so it can try to dismantle Bosnia & get R.Srpska (I do have doubts it can do that without a war in which Belgrade will lose yet again). But it's what EU's inaction will produce. New ethnic tensions & formulas. -12
So, again - #Kosovo & #Serbia have had years of technical talks. We know the chapters of future agreement. We know the framework. It's either some sort of two Germanies model or a border demarcation. What we need now is CLARITY and SPEED by Germany + France + @JosepBorrellF -13.
We must have 2020/2021 the period in which agreement is reached, confirmed by the new UNSC resolution, so in September 2021 UNGA can endorse Kosovo's accession to the @UN, as Kosovar leadership & people rightfully expect. Anything else, all bets are off. -END.
