Nigeria will only split the day the North decides it wants to go its separate way. The South East or South West can't make that decision.

Nigeria's fragile unity lies in the hands of the North for now. Or any day the South West and South East decides to unite: which is NEVER
The North has far too much control over the affairs of Nigeria tbh. You just have to have a thorough tour of Abuja to understand the level of control.

The North has a very tight control of ALL security apparatus in this country, controls the major resources that fuels Nigeria.
The South East is barely relevant in the Political conversation of Nigeria, there is no way they can decide when this country will split.

I mean, the South East is literally under a partial Military occupation by an army controlled by the North. IPOB couldn't even thrive there
The South South is too fragmented against itself to pose any challenge against the status quo.

And the North has devised a way to assuage the South South: Put Niger Deltans as figureheads over the oil wells while Northerners maintain the real control from the shadows. It works
The South West is the only one that is close to challenging the hegemony of the North. But SW is a lonewolf, catering mostly only to itself, largely distrusted by the other Southern regions.

I doubt if the South West alone can successfully challenge the North. I doubt.
From where I sit, only an alliance between the South East and South West can really usurp the North. The SS will always tag along.

But will the South East and South West ever put aside their differences to have a common ground?

I genuinely don't think so.
We tend to underestimate the level of hatred and distrust between South Easterners and South Westerners.

And this chasm between the two groups predates Nigeria's independence, worsened by the civil war.

Azikiwe/Awolowo played out that Politics and it lives on till date.
Anyway, one day the North will decide they've had enough of Nigeria themselves. For whatever reason.

When that day comes, there won't be any conflict, there won't be any debates.

There will be handshakes and each region will go there way. One day. In my lifetime or another
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