Gold is entering its mania phase. It could go completely 'bitcoin' and judging by recent twitter activity the 'next big thing' tourists are back in the room having become bored of crypto. The case for gold has been in place since March. New highs whip up media and fomo....

... and what has been obvious is now touted as original new thought. Living dead 'New asset class' articles are emerging like zombies as verticle charts pull every finjourno, retail 'influencer' or home punter in like flies to a turd. ....

... positions in etfs are huge. Record inflows. 2nd largest inflow into gold from funds ever (source BofA). Gold is going 'tabloid'. So how fast can it rise (or fall)? The narrative is in place and is solid.

Money supply huge, real yields negative and tax hikes are on the cards (physical gold is hard to track) and china/US are sabre rattling. But the drivers of price change when it hits mania. Model bitcoin - A spike, dump then relative stability. But leverage is dangerous...

... In times of high market stress all positions are force unwound. See gold in March. So though the simplest way to play this is long with trailing stops (just follow the trusty 'map of mania') one eye on the tabloid press but one eye has to be kept on the rest of markets.

A dump in markets may add to the narrative of gold but the increasing leverage of positions is making it riper for a fall.

However, retail physical interest is sticky. It is more likely that physical gold purchases becomes heirlooms rather than a stop losses.