1.7 Lebanon stands on a knife-edge. @petra_khoury , candidly, shared the below figures showing a large rise in #Covid19 cases and predicted “horrific” developments unless we change course. As we stare into either a health or an economic abyss, or both, what options do we have?

2.7 Considering the incubation period of the virus, any counter measure requires at least two weeks to show an impact. Partial lockdowns take longer than full lockdowns to slow the pandemic. With #Covid19, time is a commodity in short supply, as the graph below clearly shows.

3.7 More strict measures at community or airport level plus partial lockdowns can slow the rise in numbers. It will require a major change in public attitude and conduct, and a much harcher approach by authorities in enforcing the measures. At this stage, it may not be sufficient

4.7 The other option is to go into a full lockdown for a specified period. This is easier to implement by the authorities, does not depend on choice by a noncompliant public, and will allow a better control of the pandemic. The economic consequences, however, will be severe.

5.7 Before we make a decision, let us confess that the last months were not well managed. Our initial success was wasted. If lessons are not learned, even lockdown will not save us. However, playing the blame game and political point scoring is a luxury we cannot currently afford

6.7 Hospitals and ICU preparedness, the duty of the private health sector, the compliance of different economic sectors, public awareness and attitude, the use of digital tracking, and the severity and equal application of punitive measures, are all areas for improvement.

7.7 Presonally, I believe we are on the brink of losing control. We need a timeout. It will allow us to reorganize, get our act together. We won the first battle, but this is a war. The initiative should not be lost. Sometimes one takes a step backward to move two steps forward.