Thread by @BenTheBigBully, Gonna respond to this idiot here because there are a few common [...]

Gonna respond to this idiot here because there are a few common econ errors worth commenting on

Before that, to Mord, please stop being such a bitch. I don& #39;t owe you a polite conversation and I clearly don& #39;t like you, yet still every time you interact with me on twitter (1/21) https://twitter.com/_Mordecai_M2/status/1287142507013439490">https://twitter.com/_Mordecai...

https://twitter.com/_Mordecai_M2/status/1287142507013439490

You beg me to be nice to you, and then abscond after being told to fuck off because no one likes you to tweet to zero interactions about the "NC Hive mind." I& #39;m not here to "debate," with you, I am here to make fun of you and I would& #39;ve ended it there if I didnt (2/21)

think the mistakes you made here were common and pedagogically useful. Grow some thick skin stop being such a pussy.

On the Econ mistakes, first the claim that "Large increases in the money supply has [his error, not mine] always stood as an early indicator of inflation" (3/

This is an econ 101 bro error. If that& #39;s the extent of your experience with Econ, the simplistic models that a) are not intended to be an exhaustive description of reality and b) assume all else being equal, would have you believe that stimulus spending = weimar republic (4/21)

But I didn& #39;t say "increasing the money supply in an equilibrium state whilst holding all else equal isn& #39;t inflationary," I said "more stimulus," isn& #39;t inflationary. There are three important differences I& #39;ll highlight (5/21)

1) As the world is more integrated, inflation becomes more and more detached from the solitary influence of monetary policy. I& #39;ve attached a thread about it
https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio/status/1284549107990888452?s=20

(6/21)">https://twitter.com/VMRConsta...

https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio/status/1284549107990888452?s=20

2) The Quantitative Easing employed by the Fed, not dissimilar to what happened in 2008, by design, curbs inflationary pressure. I& #39;ve included an excerpt from "The Global Minotaur," to explain in an accessible way (7/21):

3) We are not in an equilibrium state and all else is not equal! We are experience a massive unexpected supply and demand shock putting us under extraordinary deflationary pressure! Here is quote from Ben Bernanke, former head of the fed and world renowned economist:

The "NS," there is Noah Smith of Bloomberg Opinion, another economist who, along with the rest of the profession, agree that stimulus is not inflationary. While Ben was carful with his words in this exchange, but when he testified along with former Fed Chair Janet Yellen (9/21)

in front of congressional committee, was asked explicitly if "The money we& #39;re printing now, will it cause inflation?," to which his response was just "No." I& #39;ve linked two more articles that accessibly explain away inflationary fears (10/21)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/fisher-investments-uk/will-covid-19-cause-inflation/

and

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/fis... href=" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/why-trillions-of-dollars-in-economic-stimulus-may-not-create-inflation.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/2...

Sponsored: Will Covid-19 cause inflation?

Find out why QE may have less impact on inflation than you think.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/fisher-investments-uk/will-covid-19-cause-inflation/

The next thing I want to respond to is the claim that "Additionally, covid itself as a virus is not what has halted the economy. It’s definitely been the closures and lack of monetary circulation that has made the stock market to drop so precipitously." (12/21)

Again, I didn& #39;t say Covid tanked the stock market, I said that the virus was the first order driver of low consumption. Consumption and the stock market are distinct metrics that are not necessarily synchronous, (13/21)

and if you follow me on twitter (he doesnt, though he was my biggest fan for a while), you would know I& #39;ve dedicated a good bit of energy to sharing studies that demonstrate how a vast maj of the drop in consumption can be attributed to fear of the virus, (14/21)

I& #39;ve linked a few of them below:

https://twitter.com/mioana/status/1271528769128484865?s=20

https://twitter.com/mioana/st... href=" https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1268980383778959360?s=20

This">https://twitter.com/Noahpinio... one is a presentation from the NBER, which has other videos relating to the covid crisis that I would encourage you to watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGQejgyQcxg">https://www.youtube.com/watch...

https://twitter.com/mioana/status/1271528769128484865?s=20

And these are just the ones I& #39;ve found by scrolling through my own feed, for like the last month or so. As the video mentions if you watch it, it is just one of many working papers available that try to distinguish between virus fear and ordered shutdown. (16/21)

I didnt, and probably wont, argue that the shutdown has no deleterious effects on consumption, because a) I& #39;ll wait for revised numbers first and b) thats a rough threshold that I dont think anyone is expecting it to hold to. What I will argue, is that the primary driver (17/21)

of the drop in consumption is the virus itself, a point I stand by because it is the conclusion of those that study the subject, which is also why it is the consensus of the economics profession

You& #39;ll notice I made two other statements that Mor decided not to reply to. (18/21)

I suspect its because they are concrete, falsifiable, and require more than an intuitive brospective of econ, which is where his rudimentary understanding of the discipline ends.

To Mord, I dont expect you to read all of this which is fine because I wont read whatever you reply

to it, because a) it wont be illustrative of a greater point like this was, b) I& #39;ve already put in writing that I dont think anything will change your mind and c) its clear to me that you dont really know what youre talking about, and I& #39;m not anymore interested in engaging with

that anymore than I am someone trying to convince me 3+2 =! 5.

To anyone else who read this far, thank you for reading! I hope this has been interesting. (21/21)

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