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COVID Update July 25: Right now in this crisis, good or bad is less important than early or late.
If saving lives is important to your mayor & governor, they need to be early to action. 1/
If saving lives is important to your mayor & governor, they need to be early to action. 1/
Acting to close bars & require masks BEFORE hospital beds fill is a bit like wearing a condom. Itâs more effective before the act.
2/
2/
(Donât be concerned. I wonât be taking that analogy any further.) 3/
People talk about R (the reproductive rate of the virus), but I like to boil it down to something simple. I call it âZachâs math.â #Zachsmath
Zach is my #inthebubble co-host. Also heâs our 18 year old son (on the left). 4/
Zach is my #inthebubble co-host. Also heâs our 18 year old son (on the left). 4/
One day in early March, when the reproductive rate was 2.3, I asked him how many people would 1 person be responsible for infecting after 10 generations (a generation is about 5 daysâ so call it 2 months.
Zach looked at me as if I wasnât very smart as he often does. 5/
Zach looked at me as if I wasnât very smart as he often does. 5/
4142 he said, explaining the common algebra to me.
Ok smarty. What if the R goes to 1.3?
13.8.
That canât be right I said, proving his assessment of me correct.
How about 3.3?
153,157
He and his high school brain (& calculator) left me with my jaw open. 6/
Ok smarty. What if the R goes to 1.3?
13.8.
That canât be right I said, proving his assessment of me correct.
How about 3.3?
153,157
He and his high school brain (& calculator) left me with my jaw open. 6/
So, Zach, I said seizing back the expert mantle of a father. If youâre asymptomatic and just going about your life & infect the average number of people, in 2 months you would be responsible for 4100 infections.
He was doing an excellent job hiding how impressed he was. 7/
He was doing an excellent job hiding how impressed he was. 7/
So I continued. Letâs say the death rate was 1/2 of 1%. So you would unknowingly create 20 deaths. And if you stayed home or wore a mask you could save 20 lives.
He nodded & threw me a goldfish. 8/
He nodded & threw me a goldfish. 8/
But if youâre carefulâ wear a mask or stay homeâ and infect 1.3, youâve still infected 14 people which is bad but not nearly as bad.
And Zach if you go to a party or a bar & get crazy, you alone can be responsible for 150,000 infections.
And 3000 deaths, I know dad. 9/
And Zach if you go to a party or a bar & get crazy, you alone can be responsible for 150,000 infections.
And 3000 deaths, I know dad. 9/
A cloth mask if warn uniformly is assumed to reduce r by 30%. So letâs say R was 1 where it is now many places. At 0.7, cases donât grow but they shrink.
Hereâs how. Say there are 1000 cases in a community. In 10 generations there would only be 28 cases entirely!10/
From @NPR
Hereâs how. Say there are 1000 cases in a community. In 10 generations there would only be 28 cases entirely!10/
From @NPR
(For those of you home schooling, this thread is officially sanctioned as a math lesson. If youâre creative enough, I think you can get a week or two out of variations of this analysis. Good luck.) 11/
I donât know a single act that I can do that would save 20 peopleâs lives.
Every day you put on a mask, think to yourself, âI rock. I may be saving 20 peopleâs moms or dads today alone.â
This is how I think about #Zachsmath. 12/
Every day you put on a mask, think to yourself, âI rock. I may be saving 20 peopleâs moms or dads today alone.â
This is how I think about #Zachsmath. 12/
If youâre a mayor or governor, multiply that by the people in your town or state. How often does a governor get to save that many lives? Or a mayor?
Look what happens with the early birds! 13/
Look what happens with the early birds! 13/
What that basically says is âgo early and things get better early.â And if youâre better early then you cut into #Zachsmath.
In March, when they each hit 1000 cases, NY waited 6 more days before acting than CA. And ended up with 10x the cases. 14/
In March, when they each hit 1000 cases, NY waited 6 more days before acting than CA. And ended up with 10x the cases. 14/
One of the challenges with being early is it doesnât let you off the hook. It doesnât end until the crisis ends.
You donât get to take May off because you did a good job in April. 15/
You donât get to take May off because you did a good job in April. 15/
As @NateSilver538 shared with me, there are too many unknown variables. As CA found out, after doing many things right, their farm labor camps became a major source of spread growing the food we eat.
Listen to him or many other views here. http://Smarties.it/inthebubble 16/
Listen to him or many other views here. http://Smarties.it/inthebubble 16/
There lies the problem with all of this. All this is hard to sustain. Itâs hard on all of us. Itâs hard on our businesses. Itâs hard on our incomes.
And going too early makes sustaining it more difficult. 17/
And going too early makes sustaining it more difficult. 17/
So whatâs the trick? Same as it always is.
Get to a low case count. Then test & contact trace. Without that, we are in this endless cycle weâre in now. Good-bad-good-bad-open-close-open. 18/
Get to a low case count. Then test & contact trace. Without that, we are in this endless cycle weâre in now. Good-bad-good-bad-open-close-open. 18/
If weâve learned anything by now itâs that re/opening early is just as bad as starting late. For the same reason. 3 weeks of bliss & then #Zachsmath.
19/ https://floridapolitics.com/archives/352120-secretary-beshears-will-consider-reopening-breweries-bars-next-week
19/ https://floridapolitics.com/archives/352120-secretary-beshears-will-consider-reopening-breweries-bars-next-week
Opening a brewery for 2 months on the hope that maybe there will then be a vaccine or some positive change has a lot of appeal. Not closing down until it gets bad has a lot of appeal.
But then again, I point to the earlier analogy. 20/
But then again, I point to the earlier analogy. 20/
Abbott is bragging about how hospital beds have gone down a couple days in a row while bragging about how Texas is ready to open for business. 21/
In many states it turns out, high school math doesnât prevail.
In Florida, the only way to communicate with the state about life & death is to talk about the impact on tourism.
They care about #Floridamath. 22/
In Florida, the only way to communicate with the state about life & death is to talk about the impact on tourism.
They care about #Floridamath. 22/
Whatever it takes to get off the sidelines. I took my package of testing contact tracing, and bar closing recommendations and without changing a word, re-titled it âTourism 2020 plan.â 
23/
23/
At this point in time weâve already seen it. Itâs no mystery. The bars will close. Masks will be needed. Itâs not if but when.
Make when now. At least per Zach. /end
Make when now. At least per Zach. /end
