1/ I despair at people assuming voters will desert the Tories in droves when Brexit hits the economy. We've had ten years of economic failure and the coronavirus massacre and the Tories are above 40%. Tory support isn't about facts and reasons, it's mostly about tribalism.

2/ People on the centre and left often assume politics is mostly about economics (not an assumption made on the right). Leftists think it is about inequality, Centrists think it is about economic success or failure. Both viewpoints are, in my view, profoundly flawed.

3/ We humans have a strong disposition towards a tribal mentality. It's a psychological disposition that served our ancestors well prior to civilisation. When we feel socially and economically insecure we often seek security in the modern surrogate for a tribe.

4/ Research shows Brexit voters are people who seek security and safety. In short they are insecure and fearful people who are likely to seek security in a tribe. Brexit propaganda ruthlessly whipped up fear. The Brexit right understood the psychology. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/personal-values-brexit-vote/

5/ In the days of the industrial economy many such people would have sought security by way of a tribal affiliation with the powerful working class trade unions and Labour movement. But those days are gone.

6/ Instead, with working class communities and organisations greatly weakened by deindustrialisation many of these people have sought safety in a tribal identification with what could be called the tribe-nation.

7/ Like most psychology bearing on social relations tribal identification is more emotional than rational. Once made tribal loyalty is unlikely to be undone. It is this which I believe will underpin the Tory vote during periods of economic failure.

8/ If I am right about Tory tribalism, then the hope that economic hardship will defeat the Tories is ill-founded. In that case the opposition parties must engage in electoral cooperation to give proper representation to the anti-Tory majority.