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Let& #39;s put #COVID19 into some historical context and try to give it some perspective
Thanks to @BallouxFrancois, who pointed out that COVID is most similar to the 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic, I did some research
It made me realize how completely unremarkable this whole crisis is
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Thanks to @BallouxFrancois, who pointed out that COVID is most similar to the 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic, I did some research
It made me realize how completely unremarkable this whole crisis is
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First off, SAR-CoV-2 is a corona-virus whereby the 1957 Flu was caused by the H2N2 variant of Influenza
This is a great thread by Dr. Balloux on the difference and similarities between COVID19 and previous flu pandemics
2 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1284513419454971905?s=20">https://twitter.com/BallouxFr...
This is a great thread by Dr. Balloux on the difference and similarities between COVID19 and previous flu pandemics
2 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1284513419454971905?s=20">https://twitter.com/BallouxFr...
Let& #39;s look at the numbers
IFR:
-1957 Flu: 0.67%
-SARC CoV-2: 0.65% (CDC number)
In terms of deaths/1M UK looks about the same
If you use an estimate of 220K final death toll for US it looks the same
World statistics are going to look different unless Asia joins the party
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IFR:
-1957 Flu: 0.67%
-SARC CoV-2: 0.65% (CDC number)
In terms of deaths/1M UK looks about the same
If you use an estimate of 220K final death toll for US it looks the same
World statistics are going to look different unless Asia joins the party
3
How about measures?
Back then they took the same measures that Sweden basically took. No large social gatherings (churches, theaters, etc), but otherwise life goes on
But they never contemplated wide-scale lockdowns or pre-emptive school closings
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Back then they took the same measures that Sweden basically took. No large social gatherings (churches, theaters, etc), but otherwise life goes on
But they never contemplated wide-scale lockdowns or pre-emptive school closings
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A fantastic account by someone who lived through the 1957 pandemic:
"College sports events were not canceled, planes and trains continued to run...We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances."
5 https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic">https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asia...
"College sports events were not canceled, planes and trains continued to run...We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances."
5 https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic">https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asia...
But surely we& #39;re heading for the great depression!
Not necessarily
The 1957 Pandemic cause a sharp drop in GDP but was followed by a fast recovery
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Not necessarily
The 1957 Pandemic cause a sharp drop in GDP but was followed by a fast recovery
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What about the media?
The pandemic was well covered and people were aware of the health risks - but there was no widescale panic
This is the NYT cover during the height of the first wave of the 1957 Pandemic
It is covered accordingly. Even Hoffa is a bigger story!
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The pandemic was well covered and people were aware of the health risks - but there was no widescale panic
This is the NYT cover during the height of the first wave of the 1957 Pandemic
It is covered accordingly. Even Hoffa is a bigger story!
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Most of you have either never heard of the Asian Flu or have done so recently because of COVID19
It was such an unremarkable event for that generation that it never made its way into history books as a significant event
COVID19 would have been unremarkable 60 years ago
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It was such an unremarkable event for that generation that it never made its way into history books as a significant event
COVID19 would have been unremarkable 60 years ago
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