We frequently retweet this analysis of 2016 polling accuracy & many readers just stop with this Apr 25th Tweet & read no further - they know most 2016 polls showed @realDonaldTrump with no real chance to win. But let& #39;s extract a few pollster records by name today, shall we?
1/- https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1254134354063904768">https://twitter.com/Rasmussen...
1/- https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1254134354063904768">https://twitter.com/Rasmussen...
Let& #39;s start with the listing of who was most accurate in 2016 and cross reference that with who the @DNC liked enough to approve as a "Qualified" pollster for their 2019-2020 candidate sorting process. That chart is here. Guess who doesn& #39;t "Qualify?"
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Now specifically on us - here is our late 2016 presidential results listing. Notice it has a certain GOP candidate frequently leading the @DNC approved & supported candidate. This caused a guy named "Lanny" to write to us & ask when we intended to apologize for our work.
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And here is ABC News/Washington Post - its a likely voters survey & weighted - D38, R31, Ind 27
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https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a162016ElectionTrackingNo16.pdf">https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...
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https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a162016ElectionTrackingNo16.pdf">https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...
And here is NBC News/ Wall Street Journal - its a likely voters survey & weighted D34, R28, Ind31
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https://www.scribd.com/document/330170543/9amET-NBCWSJ-release">https://www.scribd.com/document/...
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https://www.scribd.com/document/330170543/9amET-NBCWSJ-release">https://www.scribd.com/document/...
And here is @cnn . It is a non-existent final poll because they released no final poll in 2016 as you can see. Played it safe. How they would have weighted it therefore - remains a secret.
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And here is @FoxNews - still on the @realDonaldTrump target radar. Unfortunately we can& #39;t even tell anymore if it was a likely voters survey (we believe it was) or how weighted because it has been removed from RCP. Here is the link, check it yourself
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-results-11-7-16">https://www.foxnews.com/politics/...
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-results-11-7-16">https://www.foxnews.com/politics/...
And here is our favorite academic institution pollster - The Big Q - otherwise know as THE GOLD STANDARD in polling (according to the chattering classes). It pulled a CNN and played it safe so everyone can feature its unquestionable "transparency, balance & accuracy."
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We& #39;ll stop here but you can continue researching pollster accuracy & key weighting data.
The RCP 2016 final 4-way link is here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
The">https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20... MSM insists that 2016 U.S. election polling was "not at all misleading."
How stupid do they think we all are?
8/End
The RCP 2016 final 4-way link is here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
The">https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20... MSM insists that 2016 U.S. election polling was "not at all misleading."
How stupid do they think we all are?
8/End