Thread by @analyst_fpl, #FPL #GW38 EXPOSED HUGE thread about my #FreeHIT team x Spurs [...]

#FPL #GW38 EXPOSED

HUGE thread about my #FreeHIT team

x Spurs

David Silva

KDB

players with ownership under 10%

So I'm sitting at 59 763, I'm very disappointed so the last thing which left me, is to have some fun in the last GW so… I’m going to have fun. There is absolutely nothing to defend, so it’s time to attack with me Free Hit team

So in fact, we have 8 teams that have still a reason to fight and my first conclusion is that there is only one team among those, that is ranked high in terms of fixtures difficulty. It’s Tottenham. Their opponent – Crystal Palace – have lost 7 consecutive games!

Their goal difference is awful, only 2 goals scored and 17 lost which is 2,42 per game. I think Tottenham assets deserve much more attention, then they actually get. If we add, that Palace will be without their 4 (four !!!) basic defenders I’m going to triple up!

Before we move on, let’s have a look on the numbers for GW38, below you will find xG & xGA for GW38, but in a context. Have a look on the last column but keep in mind the previous ones, which will tell you whether the team is rising or falling down in terms of the particular stat

What else they play for?
Golden boot:

I really doubt that Sterling could score 4 goals to catch Vardy, neither Salah in his current form is able to do it in my opinion. But in fact we should list and consider 5 players as ‘still in the race for golden boot’:

Jamie Vardy - current leader with 23 goals, faces MUN. It’s extremely important game for both sides, to be or not to be in the CL next year. Vardy is in a fine form & Leicester’s underlying stats are better then I thought they are. They actually favor Leicester to win this game!

Danny Ings – The Blades have 2nd worst xGA based on last 4 games, though their results don’t reflect this. His underlying stats aren’t impressive, but remember how clinical he is. In those circumstances: Vardy having tough game, Sheffield nothing to play for, he will get chances

Auba – The Hornets have improved slightly in the back, once again their results don’t reflect this. Auba hasn’t had a single shot on target vs LIV & AVL, last time he scored 4 games ago vs LEI with only 1 shot on target. This doesn’t encourage me to bring him on board

Mohamed Salah – he was really poor in terms of finishing in games after restart. He could have easly scored vs CHE, ARS & BUR, but he didn’t. I think this doesn’t give him a confidence before last game in the season while being still 4 goals behind Vardy. Maybe I read this wrong

...but his body language vs CHE (relaxed, so happy for his mates goals) makes me thinking, that he already gave up on a golden boot. On the other hand, Necwastle are still without 4 centre backs, but anyway they just know how to defend and improved over last 4 games.

Raheem Sterling – no matter what we think about his golden boot chances, he should be included in our lineup for GW38. Fine form and explosiveness is exactly what we are looking for against poor Norwich
5 shots on target 2 goals vs Watford
4 shots on target 3 goals vs Brighton

Golden gloves:

So it’s between Ederson and Nick Pope. The Brazilian is almost guaranteed to keep a clean sheet (Norwich scored only 1 goals after resumption). Wood said, that Brunley is going to fight for Nicky Pope to help him win the trophy and tbh I keep my fingers crossed..

because he deserve it and it would be a bit romantic story. But the underlying stats are slightly against this, based on last 4 games BHA have a bit improved in attack while BUR have a bit worsened in the backline. I’m not sure if I would triple up on Burnley defense

KDB assists record

KSB is 1 assist short to equal Thierry Henry record from 2002/2003 season when he managed to assist 20 times. I think The Belgian is aiming to beat this record, not only equal it. The opportunity is huge, a dream one because of the opponent. Look how tough...

is this to have 20 assist in a single season. Neither of Lampard, Fabregas and Ozil were able to achieve that for years. It’s a chance to make a stamp in the history. What’s more important he is still the best in terms of xA after resumption (0,77A per game) and might be on pens

Some of my predictions, the rest you'll find on my blog

CHE have fantastic attacking underlying stats at Stamford Bridge (2nd best after resumption & over the whole season! The Blues are doing better in front of their own stands than Liverpool!).

On the other hand WOL are 1st in terms of defending away from home over the whole season and 3th best after the resumption. So great attacking stats vs great defending stats. But let’s turn things around. Wolves don’t score much goals away and it hasn’t changed after the lockdown

...while Chelsea is the best team in terms of defending before it’s own stands! So the conclusion should be, that The Blues won’t lose this game at Stamford Bridge.

Crystal Palace – Spurs

Tottenham to keep a clean sheet & win
Tottenham to score at least 3 goals
Harry Kane to score at least 2 goals

Leicester – Man Utd

This is a tough one because of the huge steak, also because of LEI injuries which make if even more difficult. R. Bennett was terrible against TOT & Kane so I really doubt that Rodgers is going to start him agains nimble and fast duo Martial & Rashford...

but he hasn’t much choice: Evans, Morgan, Justin, Bennett, Thomas, Johnson. Let’s be honest, this is a huge headache. Hence medical situation I expect The Foxes to play very deep, defensively with very rare counter attacks based on Vardy. I can’t see them scoring more than one...

But Manchester United don’t find themself good in the positional attack, tough with their current attacking force, I can’t imagine them not being capable to break the defense and score agains the backline where we have 1) a big, heavy guy Wes Morgan (36 YO, 360 minutes in PL)...

2) James Justin a youngster without any experience in big games (21 YO, 960 minutes in PL) and 3) Luke Thomas another youngster, even less experiences (19 YO, 180 minutes in PL). Johny Evans won’t be able to fix it all. I predict this game MUN will be played on the flanks...

The Red Devils should secure the middle and from there should pass to the wings, from one to the other. I expect MUN to win this game, but it’s too big game to expect a fusillade. I think that the left wing will be more important in this game and I expect goals from there.

Man City – Norwich

Manchester City to keep a clean sheet & win
Manchester City to score at least 3 goals
KDB to have at least 2 assists + scores a penalty if any appears (because of Real Madrid, surely there must be a penalty taker designated by Guardiola)

Southampton – Sheffield Utd

Southampton to score at least 2 goals
Danny Ings to score at least 1 goal
Southampton to win this game

My Free Hit team
So “you can’t always get what you want”, because we are allowed only to have 5 midfielders and 3 players from a single team. You have to make sacrifices and don’t be too harsh for yourself if those players will score big in GW38. YOU JUST CAN’T HAVE THEM ALL!

Bruno Fernandes – as I said above, I expect that the game between United and Leicester will be decided on the flanks. It doesn’t mean he can’t be involved, but this time I prefer both Martial & Rashford.

Christian Pulisic – another player with potential for points in GW38, but once again: Wolves are best team in terms of defending away from home over the whole season and 3th best after the resumption. Considering this fact, his potential for a big haul is much lower.

Mohamed Salah – I had him since the season restarted and it’s one of my biggest regret. Although I expect him to score against Newcastle I think he is extremely wastefull and need a lot of chances to convert.

Trent Alexander Arnold – he has his records so maybe it’s time to give him a bit rest and let Williams a bit game time? Maybe this is a wishfull thinking but I’m not ready to accept this risk on a Free Hit.

Michail Antonio – he is in superb form, but Aston Villa improved at the back and is going to fight for each piece of grass to survive in Premier League. Part of the plan could be to give Antonio a special cover.

David Silva – yes, you read correctly, David Silva won’t be included in my Free Hit squad. I know everyone expect a romantic story, that Silva scores a hat-trick in his last Premier League game and everyone around focus how to help him to end up his career in a style.

But there are other individuals around, KDB with an assist record to break, Sterling (I doubt) for the golden boot, Jesus aiming to prove that he could potentially replace Aguero. Does Silva have any special motivation to score big points in this game?

He is happy anyway, he will be touched, maybe during the game his mind will be focused on the final whistle, what’s then? Empty stadium, how to thank the fans, how to hide his tears? Everyone around thanking him for his wonderful career, maybe they will formulate him the lane?

It will be very emotional moment so I doubt he can focus his mind on the game. And in terms of FPL, not having him when almost everyone is going to have him, could backfire but could also pay off.

My team

My only regret is to sacrifice Pope because I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for his clean sheet and of course he is likely to get some BPS as always, but I can’t just afford him.

Rest of the team looks perfect to me

Captain is KDB

1. He aims for assists record
2. He might be on penalties again
3. He was rested, 63′ vs Brighton and 0′ vs Bournemouth
4. He had 6 (six!!!!) key passes vs Watford, 2 shots 1 on target

5. Guardiola want to ‘test’ his players before Madrid
6. I really like this guy and I think he is actually the best footballer in Premier League
7. He is midfielder so he gets more point than forward by a default
8. I saw on Twitter among #FPLcommunity plenty of teams without him

If you like this post, please RT and if you want you can have a full read on my blog

https://fplanalyst.com/index.php/2020/07/25/gameweek-38-exposed-a-comprehensive-guide-to-gw38/

GOOD LUCK GUYS!!!

Gameweek 38 EXPOSED - a comprehensive guide to GW38 - FPL Analyst

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https://fplanalyst.com/index.php/2020/07/25/gameweek-38-exposed-a-comprehensive-guide-to-gw38/

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