On #AbEd back-to-school plan, a thread:

For sake of argument, let’s pretend that children are unaffected by COVID, short term or long term, but they can transmit.

The key to controlling outbreaks is Trace, Test, Isolate.

You know what you can’t do with kids?

Isolate.
1/
Parents still need to look after them. If a child contracts it, their entire household will. Parents, siblings, possibly extended relatives.

Now two adults have to isolate and can’t work. Economic impact.

Now looking after kids at home (again).

2/
There’s a greater than 1-in-25 chance at least one parent is hospitalized. Much more likely at least one is bedridden.

Now you’re looking after children when potentially one or both parents bedridden or hospitalized.

If a parent leaves for the hospital? Say bye kids.
3/
You definitely can’t visit, and there’s no guarantee they are coming home. Mental health.

Now try this with single parents...
Bedridden single parent.. where does child go... to grandma’s?
4/
And what of every other child in the class? They now need to stay at home too. And their entire household. Economic impact.

So for every child that gets sick at school in a class of 30, that’s now 60 adults who are suddenly out of work. Again. Economic impact.
5/
Why do class sizes matter?
Impact mitigation. Containing the blast radius.
/fin
PS: Some math: If an outbreak hit a single 28-child K-3 class, assuming on average 2-parent household aged 30-39:

* 1 in 1.45 chance at least one parent hospitalized.
* 1 in 7.7 chance at least one parent in ICU.
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