THREAD: @independentsage and @chrischrip present a compelling case for the UK government to adopt a zero Covid policy. Why isn’t it doing this?

Obvious answer: economics. The report recommends restricting re-opening measures, which will impact the economy. *In the short term.* https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1286661020887515137

It’s not wrong to be seriously worried about the economic impact of lockdown. High unemployment will be a disaster for millions of people. As the child of someone who was long-term unemployed I know that it can literally destroy lives.

The ONS estimates that 1 in 2,300 are currently infected. Lockdown sceptics argue that the risk of catching and being seriously ill is now at an acceptably low level. Not so much higher than the risk of dying on the roads – which is a risk we accept. BUT. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england17july2020

The risk of dying in a road accident is fairly static. The problem with Covid is that if the R number goes above 1, then the risk of being infected starts growing. Exponentially. And Covid is a hard disease to keep under control. Countries which previously achieved low...

…numbers of new cases, but which have seen further outbreaks include Australia, Israel and Japan. See: https://institute.global/policy/learning-live-alongside-covid-19

The government is hoping it can deal with further outbreaks through local lockdowns. Maybe.

But even these will be devastating, both to the businesses directly affected and to other firms in different places who will wonder if they can remain viable if it happens in their area.

Meanwhile, we go on in a strange limbo. Nightclubs and large gatherings (gigs, sports events etc) will continue to be banned. Many pubs and bars will be slowly strangled because distancing restrictions mean they can’t turn a profit.

Most people are still very anxious about resuming normal economic activities (from @IpsosMORI). Even without distancing measures, lack of customers will hit retail and hospitality - £10 vouchers won’t be all that persuasive to the seriously worried.

So, even *with* the government re-opening measures, the outlook for the UK economy is still fairly bleak. Once the furlough scheme ends, unemployment is likely to soar.

Wouldn’t it be better to get cases right down? It would reassure the public, it would make future lockdowns

…less frequent and less damaging, and potentially require fewer social distancing rules making more businesses viable in the long-term.

It would mean short-term pain in terms of halting re-opening, but it should mean longer-term gain.

It would require a long term commitment to the government imposing strict rules around behaviour (wearing masks, hand sanitation, self-isolating if told to do so by a contact tracer). And the Tories are obviously uncomfortable with this.

It would mean a proper investment in Test, Trace and Isolate and fully involving local public health officials in its administration. The Tories are obviously uncomfortable with this too. But if they will be even more uncomfortable if businesses are allowed to slowly die...

… through lack of demand and restrictions which will probably last until we get a vaccine/effective treatments.

I can only hope common sense prevails over the government's penchant for short-term showmanship.

Full @IndependentSage report here: https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/A-Better-Way-To-Go-FINAL-proof-copy-1.pdf