This thread (popularised by @mrjamesob) was from a year ago today. It didn't turn out *exactly* as predicted, but there isn't a lot which is wildly wrong. A quick follow-up thread. 1/11 https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440

I was talking about three things: the general election (which arrived in December 2019), Brexit, and Johnson. Where are we now? 2/11

The less said about the GE, the better. The opposition remained divided, and Johnson's 'Get Brexit done' message won him the 5-year term and majority he craved. 3/11

On Brexit, Johnson (to my surprise), got a deal with the EU. But... he has spent much of 2020 trying to renege on the agreement he made (both re NI, and re the future relationship) - meaning that there's not a lot of 'deal' left. 4/11

As I said last year, post GE, the ball would be in his court, and he (with a large majority) could adopt his Brexit policy of choice. So far that seems to involve shouting that the UK is sovereign and independent; and refusing to make any commitments. 5/11

There is no strategy, just a hope that others will 'see sense' and give the UK what it wants. It is not going conspicuously well. In December, the transition period will end. 6/11

Finally, Johnson himself. He has a 5-year mandate. Notwithstanding Brexit and coronavirus his focus seems to be on shoring up his (not insubstantial) power base, and quashing dissent. 7/11

Think 'independently minded' Tory MPs, Parliament, the civil service, the BBC and the judiciary. Think the stoking of culture wars. Think disinformation warfare (and make the connections with the Russia report). 8/11

He wants power for power's sake, and abhors the thought that he might be constrained. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02/25/power-for-powers-sake-johnsons-profoundly-alarming-premiership/ 9/11

The year ahead will not be easy for him. The benefits of EU membership will be lost. The human and economic costs of the coronavirus crisis will continue to grow. 10/11

The big question is whether Johnson is able to control the narrative (and as the incumbent PM he has a lot of advantages); or whether the opposition parties/groups are able to wrest that control away. I'm hoping that they have learned some of the lessons of 2019. ENDS. 11/11