If there's such a thing as a consensus contrarian trade out there, I'm in it.

Uranium, tankers, nat gas.

For better or for worse

Made a ton of errors in uranium, greatest of which was being 3 years early. Other mistakes (not limited to) include misses on the macro, company level errors, and being too aggressive too early.

Positive, been sizing in the whole way and am loaded up

In tankers, I made plenty of mistakes along the way here too, but biggest of which being that present earnings matter. Earnings are so predictable that the market focuses on the next narrative over present cash flows.

Firmly in the red here. Been adding over the past weeks.

Natty is probably the most interesting for me. I was watching the 30,000 foot macro because of my investments in uranium. As the lowest cost producer of energy, was working with a thesis that rising NG prices would take some of the financial pressure of nuclear utes...

...removing some of the financial pressure to wind down inventories. The Covid + SA/Russia oil price war happened and had enough of a base to react and make a play. Made 3x almost immediately.

But I never had an intention to invest in the space.

One of my biggest weaknesses as an investor is I'm excitable. I think because I never intended to put money to work here, I let the trade come to me.

My biggest mistake, WAY too small. These three investments are 100% of my managed capital and even after the huge...

performance of the equities, my position in NG accounts for only 18% of my managed investments today. As grave an error as any. In the spirit of the Twins opener, that's a trash slugging percentage on a hanging breaking ball.

Just some random thoughts as I sit here with my new daughter watching some baseball on a perfect Friday night