1/

There& #39;s been a resurgence in the myth that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, kills ~0.26% of the people it infects in the US.

In other words:
The infection fatality rate (IFR) is ~0.26%.

https://physiciansforinformedconsent.org/COVID-19/ 
https://physiciansforinformedconsent.org/COVID-19/... href=" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3.full.pdf">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1281217211269623809">https://twitter.com/JamesToda...
4/

The CDC& #39;s cited source is the paper from part 2/.

But that paper states it likely *under-estimates* IFR:

"[when only analysing those serosurveys that had a low risk of bias] the inferred IFR rises substantially to 0.76% (0.37-1.15%)"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4.full.pdf">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1...
5/

So I& #39;ll start with updates of values from a previous thread:

New York City
0.5% - 1.5% (at different times in the pandemic)
https://web.archive.org/web/20200708120828/https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141689v1.full.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/20200... href=" https://web.archive.org/web/20200710064618/https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137208v1.full.pdf

New">https://web.archive.org/web/20200... York state
0.8%
0.6%

Orleans and Jefferson Parish, Louisiana
1.6% https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1276603678397476867">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
6/

Updated:

Indiana
April : 0.6%
June : 1.7%
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929e1.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volu... href=" https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/06/iupui/releases/17-fairbanks-isdh-second-phase-covid-19-testing-indiana-research.html

Chelsea,">https://news.iu.edu/stories/2... Massachusetts:
0.2% - 1.0% [mode: 0.3% - 0.5%]
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2020.1778771">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/... https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1276605278277025796">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
7/

Updated:

USA
0.07% - 1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20136580v1.full.pdf

Arizona
0.7%

Florida
0.3%https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... href=" https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1276607142280249344">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
8/

Santa Clara County, California
0.2%
0.2% - 1.0% [mode: 0.3% - 0.5%]
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4.full.pdf

Washoe">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... County, Nevada
0.8% {re-calculated: 0.9%}
https://www.washoecounty.us/outreach/2020/07/2020-07-08-jic-update-0708.php

DeKalb">https://www.washoecounty.us/outreach/... County and Fulton County, Georgia
0.5%
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929e2.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volu... https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1276778791877124098">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
9/

Davis, Salt Lake, Summit and Utah counties, Utah
0.3% {re-calculated for right-censoring: 0.6%}
https://healthcare.utah.edu/publicaffairs/news/2020/07/utah-hero-project-phase-1.php

Blaine">https://healthcare.utah.edu/publicaff... County, Idaho
0.1% (dubious)
https://web.archive.org/web/20200721223820/https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.19.20157198v1.full.pdf

Rhode">https://web.archive.org/web/20200... Island
3.6% (dubious) https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1276601838981255174">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
11/

Part 4/ stated that excess mortality shows COVID-19 deaths are under-estimated, and thus IFR is under-estimated.

If so, then this makes the IFRs on this thread ~25% larger, on average.

Further context on this below:

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1286027881492209664

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href="">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
You can follow @AtomsksSanakan.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: