Read on Twitter
According to Structural Demographic Theory, a major problem we currently face is that we have too many elites, not enough productivity growth to support them, and, as a result, we get major political & social breakdowns.
Thread
Thread
Remember Malthus?
He was worried that population would increase faster than tech could support it.
We think of him as wrong today thx to agriculture and other tech, but that's not all.
After all, population can grow 3% a year, doubling every 25 yrs. Gotta be something else.
He was worried that population would increase faster than tech could support it.
We think of him as wrong today thx to agriculture and other tech, but that's not all.
After all, population can grow 3% a year, doubling every 25 yrs. Gotta be something else.
Two kinds of checks on population growth, positive & negative.
Positive checks are things that kill people (e.g. war, famine, disease)
Negative checks are things that slow birth rate (e.g. when people get poorer, they tend to marry less and have less kids)
Positive checks are things that kill people (e.g. war, famine, disease)
Negative checks are things that slow birth rate (e.g. when people get poorer, they tend to marry less and have less kids)
Interestingly, once there are downswings in population, it takes a bit before they rise again
There's another process involved that leads to extended downswings: Elite Overproduction
Backing up: When there are too many people, food is scarce, but jobs too, causing wages to fall
There's another process involved that leads to extended downswings: Elite Overproduction
Backing up: When there are too many people, food is scarce, but jobs too, causing wages to fall
A fall in wages are bad for workers, but good for elites: they can hire more workers for the same amount of $.
When elites are better off, they are likely to marry earlier & have bigger families
So when ordinary people are struggling due to overpopulation, the elite is booming.
When elites are better off, they are likely to marry earlier & have bigger families
So when ordinary people are struggling due to overpopulation, the elite is booming.
So the amount of elites take up a bigger fraction of overall population.
The problem w/ this expansion of the elite is that society only has room for a certain amount.
As the elite expands, there's growing pressure to find roles for them, so that they can keep their lifestyles.
The problem w/ this expansion of the elite is that society only has room for a certain amount.
As the elite expands, there's growing pressure to find roles for them, so that they can keep their lifestyles.
The state steps in to provide the excess elite with positions appropriate for their status.
And that of course costs money because they need salaries sufficient to support elite lifestyles.
A huge increase in # of elites means huge increase in govt expenses to fill these roles.
And that of course costs money because they need salaries sufficient to support elite lifestyles.
A huge increase in # of elites means huge increase in govt expenses to fill these roles.
As the elite continues to expand and the state struggles to find roles for them all, you get an intense competition for these positions.
Many elites lose out on $ & status they expected to get, making them very angry and leading them to turn on each other in intra-elite conflict
Many elites lose out on $ & status they expected to get, making them very angry and leading them to turn on each other in intra-elite conflict
A visible sign of this is an emphasis on credentialing.
In the old days when most of the elite youth could expect to inherit their parents wealth & status, they didn't bother to go to university.
But w/ over-expansion, they now fight for credentials to separate them.
In the old days when most of the elite youth could expect to inherit their parents wealth & status, they didn't bother to go to university.
But w/ over-expansion, they now fight for credentials to separate them.
Overpopulation isn't the only way we get an expansion of elite.
The American Dream is another way, the idea that anyone can earn their way to the elite.
Globalization amplifies this significantly.
The internet even more so. Now the whole world is competing to be an elite.
The American Dream is another way, the idea that anyone can earn their way to the elite.
Globalization amplifies this significantly.
The internet even more so. Now the whole world is competing to be an elite.
Revolutions don't occur b/c masses are poor & angry.
The elite control the army, so they can keep down the masses.
Revolutions occur when there's intra elite competition.
Leading to a counter elite, who, feeling entitled to $ they won't get, want to ensure others won't either.
The elite control the army, so they can keep down the masses.
Revolutions occur when there's intra elite competition.
Leading to a counter elite, who, feeling entitled to $ they won't get, want to ensure others won't either.
If you want to explain when social breakdowns occur, you need to look at 3 things (Political Stress Index):
1- Mass mobilization potential (food shortages and falling wages)
2- Elite mobilization potential (over-expansion and competition for status)
3- State fiscal distress
1- Mass mobilization potential (food shortages and falling wages)
2- Elite mobilization potential (over-expansion and competition for status)
3- State fiscal distress
More on state fiscal distress:
As state needs to spend more on elite, it has a hard time raising taxes b/c poor are also needy.
It can't afford to keep the elite happy and alleviate hunger and suppress unrest, and these problems of funding the state contribute to its collapse.
As state needs to spend more on elite, it has a hard time raising taxes b/c poor are also needy.
It can't afford to keep the elite happy and alleviate hunger and suppress unrest, and these problems of funding the state contribute to its collapse.
To summarize:
Population expands until it reaches the Malthusian limit.
This means wages fall & labor is cheap, which leads to high mass mobilization potential.
Overpopulation also leads to elite over-expansion and thus intra-elite competition.
Population expands until it reaches the Malthusian limit.
This means wages fall & labor is cheap, which leads to high mass mobilization potential.
Overpopulation also leads to elite over-expansion and thus intra-elite competition.
This leads to increased state expenditure to take care of elites, which means they need to raise taxes at the same time that the masses are poorer and *they* also need more govt services
It ends in breakdown & population collapse, taking you back to underpopulation & small elite
It ends in breakdown & population collapse, taking you back to underpopulation & small elite
Peter Turchin has also written a book applying the theory to the United States. American Civil War fits this theory
Structural Demographic Theory used to take 2 centuries, but now takes 150 years, which means U.S. is getting pretty close to political breakdown & social calamity.
Structural Demographic Theory used to take 2 centuries, but now takes 150 years, which means U.S. is getting pretty close to political breakdown & social calamity.
This analysis may seem strange.
Isn't it a problem that rich people (& everyone) are having too *few* kids?
The bigger problem is that productivity growth isn't rising enough to support their growth relative to overall population growth.
Isn't it a problem that rich people (& everyone) are having too *few* kids?
The bigger problem is that productivity growth isn't rising enough to support their growth relative to overall population growth.
Humans landed on the moon 50 yrs ago. But spaceflight remains a marginal activity with just a few astronauts in space at a time.
Compare that w/ how in 50 yrs you went from the first powered aircraft to a global airline industry, already carrying 10s of millions of ppl a year.
Compare that w/ how in 50 yrs you went from the first powered aircraft to a global airline industry, already carrying 10s of millions of ppl a year.
If we had continued to develop spaceflight and lunar exploration, that would have created lots of jobs, as well as opened up new resources, including abundant solar energy and metals and other valuable materials on the moon. And that would have absorbed the increase in population
Signals of elite overexpansion: University attendance.
In UK since 1990, population increased by 15%, but the # of students increased by almost 100%.
in 1990, American Law school grads had even distribution of salaries, but by 2000 there was a separation into winners & losers.
In UK since 1990, population increased by 15%, but the # of students increased by almost 100%.
in 1990, American Law school grads had even distribution of salaries, but by 2000 there was a separation into winners & losers.
Both far leftists & far rightists comprise the counter-elite.
They consider themselves entitled to elite privileges, but the state can't absorb them.
And since they seem destined to remain outside privilege, oppose it: If they can't be a part of it, they want to destroy it.
They consider themselves entitled to elite privileges, but the state can't absorb them.
And since they seem destined to remain outside privilege, oppose it: If they can't be a part of it, they want to destroy it.
Because the cycle isn't over yet, we should expect a full blown political crisis, & then a general breakdown and reset.
Either a positive check (increase in death rate) and/or a negative check (decrease in birth rate)
One solution is economic growth: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1003832330828443648?s=20
Either a positive check (increase in death rate) and/or a negative check (decrease in birth rate)
One solution is economic growth: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1003832330828443648?s=20
