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THREAD: Talking to staffers at progressive orgs and in Congress, there's a sense that "yes, progressives are winning all these symbolic foreign policy victories, but..."
Looking from the outside in, I think there's reason for progressives to be (cautiously) optimistic...
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Looking from the outside in, I think there's reason for progressives to be (cautiously) optimistic...
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...and for Congress-watchers to pay attention to them on foreign policy.
Here are my three broad observations:
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Here are my three broad observations:
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NUMBER ONE: There is now a constituency for progressive foreign policy.
Foreign policy has traditionally been an elite issue, where most people don't care except for a few grassroots pressure groups—Latin American exiles, evangelicals, etc—all of which are conservative
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Foreign policy has traditionally been an elite issue, where most people don't care except for a few grassroots pressure groups—Latin American exiles, evangelicals, etc—all of which are conservative
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Now it seems that foreign policy is an issue that can get *doves* out to the polls. The Democratic base *cares* about restraint.
You might not get primaried on your Iraq War vote alone, but it will be an issue you have to defend yourself on.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/race-take-over-house-foreign-affairs-committee-heating-%E2%80%94and-progressives-could-win-either
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You might not get primaried on your Iraq War vote alone, but it will be an issue you have to defend yourself on.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/race-take-over-house-foreign-affairs-committee-heating-%E2%80%94and-progressives-could-win-either
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This is in large part due to the partisan culture war.
Trump made a lot of foreign policy areas—like Iran, Cuba, Syria/Kurds, Israel—about throwing red meat to the conservative base or undoing Obama's legacy.
Democrats want to protect that legacy.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/did-donald-trump-miss-his-chance-better-iran-deal-163353
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Trump made a lot of foreign policy areas—like Iran, Cuba, Syria/Kurds, Israel—about throwing red meat to the conservative base or undoing Obama's legacy.
Democrats want to protect that legacy.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/did-donald-trump-miss-his-chance-better-iran-deal-163353
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This anti-Trump reaction on foreign policy doesn't always benefit progressives. Russiagate, the negotiations with North Korea, and Trump's ruptures with allies means moderate Democrats are locked in to the pre-Trump status quo on a lot of issues.
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/29/884611485/congress-unites-to-demand-answers-from-trump-on-russian-bounties-in-afghanistan
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https://www.npr.org/2020/06/29/884611485/congress-unites-to-demand-answers-from-trump-on-russian-bounties-in-afghanistan
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But on balance, it's good for progressives, and that's because...
NUMBER TWO: The Overton window is shifting left.
Trump's loudness on a lot of issues has made hawkish positions in general look right wing—which is also opening space on the Left.
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NUMBER TWO: The Overton window is shifting left.
Trump's loudness on a lot of issues has made hawkish positions in general look right wing—which is also opening space on the Left.
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Progressives can now talk about the Pentagon and Homeland Security budgets as "giving Trump money."
Trump's loudness on Iran and Venezuela have made it easier for doves to talk about things like "regime change" without sounding paranoid.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/no-%E2%80%9Cregime-change%E2%80%9D-progressives-celebrate-victory-democratic-platform-165492
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Trump's loudness on Iran and Venezuela have made it easier for doves to talk about things like "regime change" without sounding paranoid.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/no-%E2%80%9Cregime-change%E2%80%9D-progressives-celebrate-victory-democratic-platform-165492
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And it goes without saying what Trump has done to Israeli-Palestinian issues in American public discourse.
I have a feeling the consensus is about to break on other issues as well. Keep an eye on Latin America, particularly Bolivia and Honduras.
This is because...
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I have a feeling the consensus is about to break on other issues as well. Keep an eye on Latin America, particularly Bolivia and Honduras.
This is because...
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NUMBER THREE: Politics is about momentum.
Every time someone in power breaks consensus on foreign policy, that weakens the consensus *a little more.*
Every time an insurgent candidate wins, it makes their movement look like better long-term bet.
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Every time someone in power breaks consensus on foreign policy, that weakens the consensus *a little more.*
Every time an insurgent candidate wins, it makes their movement look like better long-term bet.
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This is why you see establishment politicians in either party suddenly rush to pander whenever there's a primary upset, no matter how significant.
But there's also real momentum outside of elections, too. Policies build on policies.
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But there's also real momentum outside of elections, too. Policies build on policies.
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Symbolic victories become real.
Tulsi Gabbard's proposed sanctions monitor, for example, would make it easier for to say that sanctions kill.
Public condemnations of Turkey or Saudi Arabia make it easier to argue for actual cuts to military aid.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/tulsi-gabbard-wants-know-if-us-sanctions-are-killing-children-165342
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Tulsi Gabbard's proposed sanctions monitor, for example, would make it easier for to say that sanctions kill.
Public condemnations of Turkey or Saudi Arabia make it easier to argue for actual cuts to military aid.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/tulsi-gabbard-wants-know-if-us-sanctions-are-killing-children-165342
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And, of course, organization doesn't disappear. The set of people, institutions, coalitions, etc that coalesced around Bernie Sanders is still there.
Losing *can* undermine your momentum, but in terms of organization, it takes a really crushing defeat to dismantle.
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Losing *can* undermine your momentum, but in terms of organization, it takes a really crushing defeat to dismantle.
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Right now the movement in the stage of testing the waters, staking out its positions, and seeing how much muscle it can flex.
I'll end this by saying that, of course, no one can predict the future. But keep an eye out—over the next few years, not months.
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I'll end this by saying that, of course, no one can predict the future. But keep an eye out—over the next few years, not months.
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