THREAD: Key points from my overview of latest #COVID19 numbers in the weekly @IndependentSage briefing. Firstly, for the first since 11 April, the 7 day daily average of new cases has gone up every day for the past week... 1/10

Is time to be v alarmed? Not *quite* yet. From NHS Test & Trace report we know number of people being tested has gone up over July. *And* that proportion of people tested who are positive has stayed the same over 1st 2 weeks of July (@ 1.1%). BUT this only goes up to 15 July 2/10

So we don't know what the situation was over last 7 days. Have cases gone up only because there have been more people tested? (a GOOD thing) Or have cases gone up because of increased COVID transmission? (a BAD thing). Next two weeks should make that clear... 3/10

COVID cases are not spread evenly through the UK - less in Scotland & NI and very variable around England. 4/10

Test and Trace is just not improving quickly enough but kudos to them for rapidly improving their reports to contain lots more info. 5/10

Latest report has new info leading @RoyalStatSoc to estimate that only 30% of non-household contacts being reached. Also, @guardian ran two stories last week about TTI being less effective in hotspots & deprived areas. This is *exactly* where need TTI to be *most* effective. 6/10

Other countries have been trying to live with a suppression strategy for longer than us - what have we learned? Suppression at ~500 cases a day is HARD. Spain currently experience marked increase in cases even after a hard and long lockdown 7/10

And Israel, Australia & Japan all struggling to contain new outbreaks after periods of control. Outbreaks linked to super-spreader settings (bars, factories, parties), young people spreading it unknowingly, lack of masks & social distancing. 8/10

Even after months of control like things can escalate quickly. UK at a crunch point - how much work is govt prepared to do to control it? Last week's rise in cases signals time for caution. V worried that we are still opening gyms etc tomorrow and back to work week after. 9/10

NI & Scotland now formally pursuing #ZeroCOVID and NI working with Rep of Ireland to do so. England & Wales should join them! 10/10