Is @AbiyAhmedAli Winning or Losing?

He lost Amhara nationalists, because he is not Amhara. He lost Oromo nationalists, because he is not like 'real' Oromos. He lost democratic forces, because he is not a democrat. Who is he left with? 1/6

He is left with notorious Ethiopian nationalists and rent-seeking cadres.
The Ethiopian nationalists want him to save them the Republic by hook or the crook; the rent-seekers have no other business other than their business. Anyway, both work for his interest. 2/6

Last year, on the escalation of Amhara nationalism, none imagined the nationalism can be this much defeated. The escalation ended up weakening the nationalim, dividing them regionally. Now, even NAMA, the birth child of that escalation, is now moderate. 3/6

My assumption is that Oromo Nationalism, even though more experienced and consolidated, would go in the same trajectory as the Amhara nationalism. No lesson was taken. In any case, any violence would eventually work to the power holder. 4/6

In this way, Abiy will not be the man whose name was idolized at the beginning of his reign, but he will be the lone "strong man" for a long time. He wins. Elections will be held, but can not be fair because of weakened alternatives. PP wins it all. 5/6

Nationalists crave for nepotism, ethnocentric rule, and their means of violence will be used to justify his undemocratic rules. Regardless, he will be supported by the tired-majority that will never get anything from power battle of the giants only because he brings silence. 6/6